Silk Road forums
Discussion => Security => Topic started by: head on June 16, 2012, 09:04 pm
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Do you think this could happen in the future?
Is it silly to "spare" bitcoins? Do the vendors exchange their bitcoins as soon as they receive them?
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Wow it has gone up!
Some vendors might decide to invest in BTC but its a risk and every vendor has to convert BTC back into dollar or pounds, euro or whatever.
I keep thinking I ought to maybe buy 100 BTC when I got the coin as a saving account! So far this year its gone up and down but trend seems to be on the up.
I know my first bitcoin was just over £3 and now just 5 month later or so its £4..26761. So investors have won.
Bitcoin is like a lot of things involving technology, a mix of good, bad and uncertain. Will Bitcoins still be here in ten years? If so - a vendor could stash a tiny memory chip somewhere with all his profits. Even if imrisoned its likely going to be good news IF BTC goes up.
Anyhow - if some think prices here are down - think again! Its a strong BTC and rising value means good here cost 'less' than a month ago.
I wish I had the rigs to mine bitcoins also. If you can bypass the meter and run a few dozen rigs - you got to be making lot of coin!
Just think - maybe a lot of the BTC being made are kids in bedrooms who know how to mine this shit or people in workplaces who have control over a few dozen or more computers. Anyone working in graphics design would have a rig capable of making a few bitcoins over night!
Wish I had got into bitcoin at the start!
Now that would some return!!!!
Such is life - too many things going on for us to see the good ones sometimes!!
what a great invention though.
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I'm so glad I got my coins at the start of the rise, they are worth more every day. If I had loads of money (like some of the larger, none hedged vendors, they must be making a decent whack!).
If you bought £10,000 when they were £3.30 per ฿1, you would have ฿3030.303.
If you then sold the ฿3030.303 at the current rate (Intersango 16/5/2012 - £4.20 per ฿1), you would have £12727.272 (minus commission?).
And you would have made £2727ish (minus commission which is 0.65). Not bad for a couple of weeks investment. Warning though - what comes up must come down, or so the theory goes!
By the way, Intersangos original warning said that site maintenance would begin at 12:00pm on Sunday (or was it Saturday) for a few hours only.
Now it says 'Metro Bank transfers will be delayed until Monday due to technical error'. I don't know what is going on with these jokers, they never give you any idea how long these problems will persist for (hours, days, weeks!)
Vlad1m1r pm me please, I'd like to talk buddy.
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Yep bitcoin is up now.
So back on the 13th of May the price of BTC crossed the 50 day moving average and the 50 day moving average touched the 25 day moving average on the 15th May. On the 3rd of June the price exited the top of the Bollinger bands and has continued to rise taking brief dips back into the top Bollinger band from time to time but never hitting the 25 day moving average. Momentum has remained strong at 0.5 and spiked over the last 5 days to 1.45. Momentum is weakening a bit as it drops back down towards the 0.5 mark. RSI shows it to have been over bought hitting an 80 at the top end.
All in all, these are strong indicators of a continuing upward trend in the value of BTC to USD. Looking at the Historic charts, it did this last in early Jan. Topping out at 7 USD to the BTC up from 2. I would expect this to top out above 9 then drop back down to around 7.
When the price drops below the 25 day moving average it is time to liquidate your BTC holdings but for now, you can make money by holding on to them.
But what do I know, I am just some anonymous guy giving his opinion.
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I doubt you could apply the usual technical analysis used for stock and exchange rates to bitcoin.
The total market cap for bitcoins is only about 50 million usd worth. Volatility is also extreme and rapid, in the last hour the price dropped from 6.35 to 6.16, on more than average volume (15000 in one hour). The latter is not uncommon for bitcoin though, its probably a couple of large sell orders (sporting bets cashed after the EUFA poule results?).
If you look at the technical analysis anyways, there was a pretty firm ceiling established in january at about 7.15 usd. Looking at a bottom you probably be november 2011 with a bottom around 2.25.
I am actually a curious about how much of the bitcoin economy takes place right here on SR. It would be interesting to know how many bitcoins change hands here on a daily, weekly or monthly basis. But even more interesting would be knowing how much is now tied up in SR escrow, and what part of that escrow is hedged against the dollar. Hedging could have a very stabilizing effect on the bitcoin exchange rates, even if the amount hedged was just a million dollars worth across several websites.
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Ben, you may be right but my technicals have not failed me yet. I am keeping a close eye on the BTC to USD rate and enjoying it. ;)
I do the same with stocks but they don't seem to move as fast. Plus if you play the multiple currency markets in BTC you can buy low and sell high based on the market it is on.
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It's almost as if somebody is playing with the bitcoin economy. If you look at intersango, somebody is buying 3000 bitcoins, which is basically 3 times the amount being offered. That person alone is controlling the whole euro/bitcoin exchange on that site.
I'd be careful jumping on the bandwagon and investing big time in bitcoin. It appears kinda artificial to me, and I see the price coming down in the future. Or maybe it doesn't. I think it all depends on the decisions of a few big investors.
Either that, or somebody is collecting bitcoins big time to buy Limitless's truck.
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On smaller exchanges you often see a big difference in ask and buy prices, indicating that transaction volume is very low and people have to resort to best effort orders instead of limit orders.
I often deal with bitstamp, a europe based market that isnt even -that- small. Looking at the order book right now:
- buying 100 btc would push the price to 6.34
- selling 100 btc would drop the price to 5.98
On MtGox this would be less dramatic, but still result in a noticable price change. On bitstamp the margin between buy and sell if often quite large even for a minute volume, it can be over 10 cents between the best let and best bid even for a single bitcoin.
If you compare that to the euro/dollar exchange you get an idea of how flimsy it really is. To push the euro/dollar rate 1 cent it would take a transaction of well over a million to achieve that.
Bitcoins as an investment will always be a bit of a gamble, long term it just depends on the adoption of btc as a currency. There are only 10 million bitcoins in circulation, and there will never be more then about 20, so if its widely adopted the price is certain to skyrocket.
However, bitcoin could be abandoned in favor of another system, rendering them zero value.
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Either that, or somebody is collecting bitcoins big time to buy Limitless's truck.
This gave me a chuckle. ;D
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My question is - how closely do the products on the site stay connected to the value of real world money?
A number of months ago 1 bitcoin was worth around 2 pounds. Now 1 bitcoin is worth 4 pounds.
But as far as I can see products on SR haven't drastically changed in bitcoin value. A product that was selling for 40 bitcoins a few months ago, should now be selling for 20 bitcoins, but this does not seem to be the case.
Is my logic flawed? I am fairly new to this.
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My question is - how closely do the products on the site stay connected to the value of real world money?
A number of months ago 1 bitcoin was worth around 2 pounds. Now 1 bitcoin is worth 4 pounds.
But as far as I can see products on SR haven't drastically changed in bitcoin value. A product that was selling for 40 bitcoins a few months ago, should now be selling for 20 bitcoins, but this does not seem to be the case.
Is my logic flawed? I am fairly new to this.
You are correct about the value. Vendors have an option to have listings as a set bitcoin amount or to set the listing to follow the USD. If you do the first, the listing will always be a set BTC amount, the second means that the listing will change depending on the value of the BTC to USD. I am not 100% sure how this is pegged to the exchange, I have spot checked a few and it seems to be a little off but that may just be a delay on the times it updates from the exchange.
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Is it silly to "spare" bitcoins?
No, I'd highly recommend it. Check my commments in this thread: http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=27403.msg298898#msg298898
Do the vendors exchange their bitcoins as soon as they receive them?
I expect the more clued in ones will keep some proportion of their Bitcoins made from sales. In fact, it would make alot of sense for them to keep all the Bitcoins and use them to pay THEIR suppliers with too. The next guy up the food chain has even more to worry about when it comes to their cash/bank account assets getting seized by LE. Not possible when you keep your money as Bitcoins, they can't touch them (assuming you protect the coins properly of course)
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Either that, or somebody is collecting bitcoins big time to buy Limitless's truck.
This gave me a chuckle. ;D
LOL
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. In fact, it would make alot of sense for them to keep all the Bitcoins and use them to pay THEIR suppliers with too. The next guy up the food chain has even more to worry about when it comes to their cash/bank account assets getting seized by LE.
now THAT i want to see on Scarface 2!! Tony Montana's protege accepting Bitcoins! quality!
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My question is - how closely do the products on the site stay connected to the value of real world money?
A number of months ago 1 bitcoin was worth around 2 pounds. Now 1 bitcoin is worth 4 pounds.
But as far as I can see products on SR haven't drastically changed in bitcoin value. A product that was selling for 40 bitcoins a few months ago, should now be selling for 20 bitcoins, but this does not seem to be the case.
Is my logic flawed? I am fairly new to this.
You are correct about the value. Vendors have an option to have listings as a set bitcoin amount or to set the listing to follow the USD. If you do the first, the listing will always be a set BTC amount, the second means that the listing will change depending on the value of the BTC to USD. I am not 100% sure how this is pegged to the exchange, I have spot checked a few and it seems to be a little off but that may just be a delay on the times it updates from the exchange.
If a vendor decides to list someting at USD prices, you will see no variation in USD pricing. SR simply recalculates the number of bitcoin that matches the dollar amount on a regular basis. I'm not entirely sure on how that is done, but it seems to be a daily update against the mtgox middle rate.
As far as vendors paying their suppliers in bitcoin, i suspect its very variable. But even if they did, the bitcoins would then accumulate at the suppliers, that would probably have to exchange them for dollars or euros to actually spend the money.
This isn't likely to change until you can shop on a very broad variety of products paid for and listed in bitcoin. If it were ever to come to the point where you can pay for groceries at the local 7/11, expect the bitcoin value to rise immensly though - you'll probably be shopping with mili or microbitcoins.