Silk Road forums
Discussion => Silk Road discussion => Topic started by: Bluto on August 22, 2013, 05:08 pm
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Hey guys,
I am trying to figure out if the odds of drawing a single number as the last digit of a transaction are in fact 1/16.
Sure, I know that hex has 16 digits but is that evenly distributed?
For example if I know that the transaction code uses the last digit for something and resets under specific conditions -then a vendor could game the system making it seem as if the odds are 1 in 16 when in fact they are not.
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I've been told by vendor support it's a totally random number generated by whatever algorithm DPR used when building the site but that it's totally random.
From the distribution table I have kept to monitor this from a sample of 1000 I would tend to agree.
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I know you were told that there would be no math but there is math.
The geometric probability distribution is the one that we are looking at.
If the prize value is greater in value than 16*the cost of the play then it is a good deal.
Assuming it's evenly distributed.
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If the prize value is greater in value than 16*the cost of the play then it is a good deal.
It's different when dealing with drugs however. Having a 40% chance at two doses, one to share with a friend, I'd say is often better than having only one dose.
Also shipping costs. Lotteries negate the cost of shipping 16 * packages, so you get that discounted also.
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I know you were told that there would be no math but there is math.
The geometric probability distribution is the one that we are looking at.
If the prize value is greater in value than 16*the cost of the play then it is a good deal.
Assuming it's evenly distributed.
Pardon me, but who on Earth would run a lottery when the odds favor the customer and the vendor will steadily lose money over time? That's kind of the opposite of what casinos generally use as their business model, ya know.
Yes, the implications of this are that the house will always win: therefore you shouldn't gamble, ever, unless you're just doing it for the entertainment value. That's fine. Just expect to lose everything you walk in with as the price of your fun. It's a saying for a reason: "the house always wins." They really always do, eventually.
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Pardon me, but who on Earth would run a lottery when the odds favor the customer and the vendor will steadily lose money over time? That's kind of the opposite of what casinos generally use as their business model, ya know.
Yes, the implications of this are that the house will always win: therefore you shouldn't gamble, ever, unless you're just doing it for the entertainment value. That's fine. Just expect to lose everything you walk in with as the price of your fun. It's a saying for a reason: "the house always wins." They really always do, eventually.
Very true SelfSovereignty, Personally I take a "Fun tax" of between 2% - 5% on my lottery listings, Less than most casinos
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Really though, the house that always wins is DPR.
guaranteed profit for him on every listing :P
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while bored and on silk road one day i looked at one of these lotteries. i thought i'd check it out and went through the comments on one of the listings. not one comment said won for 14 pages. that's 140 losses in a row.
.
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Pardon me, but who on Earth would run a lottery when the odds favor the customer and the vendor will steadily lose money over time? That's kind of the opposite of what casinos generally use as their business model, ya know.
Not all drug dealers are good at math.