Silk Road forums
Discussion => Newbie discussion => Topic started by: John Humphreys on February 04, 2013, 12:51 pm
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I have been planning on doing an SR survey for a long time... but the project keeps getting delayed. In the hope of kick-starting my research, I've coming asking for suggestions.
1. survey SR or the forum? Several people have suggested that it would be better to directly ask people on the main SR site, and I agree. However, it's not clear to me how I can find people on SR so that I can send them the survey. Is is possible to find account names somehow? At least on the forum I can just go through previous conversations and collect a list of account names, and then send a survey to a random sample of those names.
2. the main point of the survey is to ask about the success of SR orders, which I wanted to simplify by putting into categories. I was thinking (a) arrived, as expected; (b) something arrived, but ripped off somehow; (c) didn't arrive, but I don't blame vendor (LE or lost in post); and (d) didn't arrive, I blame the vendor (scam). Any suggestions of other options or improvements I could make?
3. I understand that some people are (rightly) sensitive about sharing personal information given that not everything on SR is 100% legal. Obviously I don't intend to ask about what people are buying, or name & address type details... but are there any other ways I can make people feel at ease in doing the survey?
Thanks for any ideas & suggestions you might have. Please don't actually answer the survey questions here as I can't use that information.
Cheers,
John
(Yes, I am posting under my real name... feel free to contact me IRL if you want to check.)
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That information is already publicly visible on the SR system. It's called feedback.
Write a script to scrape the results from all vendor pages.
5/5 = success
2/5 - 4/5 = partial success
1/5 = scammed
run the figures.. job done. You don't need unsernames to make that data meaningful.
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@DrugBuddy -- Yeah, I was planning on compiling the feedback data as well, but that has a significant selection bias. The same is true of an informal survey that was done on the forum over a year ago. My goal is to do something closer to random sampling.
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Are you a journalist???
"John Humphreys (born 22 October 1978) is an Australian economist, commentator and political activist." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Humphreys_(economist)
That's you?
Oh. I'm honestly not sure how much how much the SR community will want to help you.... since nobody wants this place to get any more attention. The more articles written, the more heat we will have to endure... and I'm pretty sure nobody here really wants to see this place destroyed.
Please sir, at least don't name SR explicitly. We're happy here.
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@NickNack -- I'm not a journalist, but the wiki article you quote is me. As it says, I'm an economist... and my SR research is part of my PhD.
Obviously, it's not compulsory for people to answer survey questions. But I can assure you that LE are already well aware of the existence of SR and I doubt very much that a sub-chapter of an Australian economics PhD thesis is going to change anything about that. :)
The reason I'm interested in SR is that it is an example of people contracting without any formal enforcement mechanism, and so it represents a potentially interesting case study in emergent institutions. Similar studies have been done regarding the informal rules of pirates, and the rules that have existed in various anarchist societies through history.
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This....sounds awesome.
And you do bring a valid point, I do not think that there is anything more attention can really do except bring us more people, unless it is a MAJOR news release of some sort that spawns riots across the world as citizens demand action. I think as long as you keep the questions strictly SR business related without any personal information at all, it would be fine. Perhaps at the most a country and/or region of the country.
Most people down here (the ones that last anyways) are smart enough to avoid giving out the type of info that would get them nailed. If you included an option for the person surveyed to mark any questions that they thought could be too revealing, that might be good.
Might I add, I think you made an excellent choice when choosing SR. I have had a couple discussions with people about how SR proves that a community can effectively moderate itself, given the proper tools and that the people involved are not stupid. It is proof that you do not need centralization to accomplish things.
I would be willing to participate in such a survey. I would also be interested to read your final paper, if possible.
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I'd be interested in taking the survey, are you going to make your thesis available to us lab rats when it's completed?
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@NickNack -- I'm not a journalist, but the wiki article you quote is me. As it says, I'm an economist... and my SR research is part of my PhD.
Obviously, it's not compulsory for people to answer survey questions. But I can assure you that LE are already well aware of the existence of SR and I doubt very much that a sub-chapter of an Australian economics PhD thesis is going to change anything about that. :)
The reason I'm interested in SR is that it is an example of people contracting without any formal enforcement mechanism, and so it represents a potentially interesting case study in emergent institutions. Similar studies have been done regarding the informal rules of pirates, and the rules that have existed in various anarchist societies through history.
I wasn't trying to say LE wasn't aware of us... just that rubbing their face in our blatant rebellious behavior might rattle some cages. But since, as you say, this is for a sub-chapter of an economics thesis... I'm no longer concerned about publicity. :P I don't think many enjoy reading economics... let alone the fact that it's a non-mainstream line of thinking. (Too bad, I wish it was.)
Sounds like a very interesting read. When you complete the thesis, you should submit/post it to Zerohedge... you might find an interested audience there.
Good luck to ya, sir. Congrats on your future PhD.
And you do bring a valid point, I do not think that there is anything more attention can really do except bring us more people, unless it is a MAJOR news release of some sort that spawns riots across the world as citizens demand action. I think as long as you keep the questions strictly SR business related without any personal information at all, it would be fine. Perhaps at the most a country and/or region of the country.
Most people down here (the ones that last anyways) are smart enough to avoid giving out the type of info that would get them nailed. If you included an option for the person surveyed to mark any questions that they thought could be too revealing, that might be good.
I wasn't talking about each of us getting nailed, I was talking more bigger picture. They don't need to nail each one of us to shut us down.
I'm not as confident as you... I don't thin SR is rock solid untouchable. Nor do I think TOR is rock solid either. Piss the US gov off enough, they will use SR as an excuse for more control. The more media exposure SR gets, the more people that are talking about it. I mean, every day I read more an more stories about how hacker bogie men are hiding, ready to strike... about how the government needs more control of the web to keep us safe etc. They want to sink their claws further into this, they just need excuses. They don't need riots, just a couple asshole Senators/Congressmen that want to make it their mission.
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Thanks maple & Splint... I will certainly share my findings when the research is done. I can't necessarily pick you to do the survey since I need to pick the names at random, but I appreciate the support.
I think it could be interesting to throw in a question or two about whether or not the person is dependent on Silk Road for their drugs as well, or if the same drugs always were or are readily available on the street as well. I'm not sure if it would be relevant to your research but it'd be interesting to see how many people have perhaps fallen into drug dependance solely because of the Silk Road. Though it certainly seems pretty clear Silk Road is a drop in the puddle of the drug world.
My original intention was to avoid any details about what people are buying on SR. While we all know that drugs are common on the road, they aren't the only product sold, so it is theoretically possible that the people answering the survey haven't actually broken any laws. I don't need to know, and it will probably be easier to get ethics approval from my University if such things are left ambiguous. :)
Having said that, I agree that the questions you suggest are interesting. I would also like to know what sort of price premium there is between SR and IRL products. I'll try to think of a subtle way to get at these questions.
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Btw, does anybody have any criticisms or suggestions regarding point (2) of my original post? Do those four categories cover all meaningful options?
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This is an interesting idea! Unfortunately, I don't know much about the best ways of going about this, but I think you're going to have a hard time doing a survey anywhere that isn't these forums. What kind of questions are you going to ask? Just what percentage of orders are people actually receiving or what? I know in Australia, things are quite a bit different - customs for packages getting into the country are scrutinized more carefully than any other place in the world.
Also, different buyers have different levels of success using the road. I spend a great deal of time reading everything about a vendor I can possibly find before I commit to any purchases. Because of this, I have had no problems. Seven successful transactions. Each time, I received what I wanted, how much of it I wanted, and the product description has always been accurate so I knew the quality before I even placed the order. However, I imagine there are several who do very limited research and maybe their only search parameter is that they want the lowest price for whatever it is they're looking for. The biggest way people get scammed is by getting talked into finalizing early with non-trusted vendors. I can see this potentially skewing the results of your survey.
Good luck on your paper! Interested to see where this goes.
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I don't share your enthusiasm. Your goal might be an altruistic search for knowledge but the outcome of the paper will not benefit anyone but those who would seek to destroy this resource. Yes, I call it a resource. For starters, your paper would not be taken seriously in academic circles because the data you collect can not be independently verified. However it is the sort of paper that a politician would get hold of and brandish to demand higher funding for customs, or a motion for Internet regulation... “see how much illicit material enters our country..... its an outrage....” Even though that is not the point of your paper. No one can stop you collecting the data on your own, but I would discourage anyone from helping you.
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I have an idea in my head at least that i think could work.. Making a 3rd party site, each vendor(and buyer) gets and unique ID number(So it cant be traced back) And here it could be more details in the feedback, a better pointsystem(without having to renewing the hole system, only need to give them a number)
This is a very weak explanation of it, but if some of you understand it and think it could be an good idea i could go deeper into it.. right now i want to sleep:) Its 4am here:)
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@boomer1932 -- The issue I'm trying to explore is the degree to which people "play by the rules" when there is nobody to enforce the rules. So I need to know more than simply whether the orders show up, but also whether they show up correctly (ie a seller could send you a significantly devalued product) and if the product doesn't arrive I need an assessment of whether that is due to external circumstances or fraud from the seller. This is why I've listed four categories.
I'll probably also need to split the orders between domestic and international too.
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I see the angle you're taking now. However, I still can see the same problems with collecting data. Those who stick to reputed vendors get consistently great results - high quality products, great prices, stealthy shipping (when appropriate), etc. The way these vendors get their reputations is reviews by other consumers. Those purchasers who look simply for the lowest price rather than investigating vendors or are willing to finalize early are easy prey for scammers. Based on what I've read, most people who've been around the road for a while have stuck around because they've been able to "play by the rules." Those who don't "play by the rules" are swiftly gone from the community.
Also, the Silk Road itself enforces the rules. This is why vendor accounts sometimes get suspended or banned.
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bump
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I'd love to read the thesis when done. Will that be possible?
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Reading a full PhD thesis is normally a punishment reserved for people who have committed the worst of sins. If you really think you deserve such torture, then sure.
Though I suspect you might just be interested in this particular section of my PhD, which I will write up into a shorter article and share on SR when it's done.
The other (less interesting) sections of my PhD are about the rate of return on higher education in Cambodia, the contrasting financial features of personal equity and debt instruments, and modifying the profit-maximising assumption in micro-economic theory. You asleep yet? ;)
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Reading a full PhD thesis is normally a punishment reserved for people who have committed the worst of sins. If you really think you deserve such torture, then sure.
Though I suspect you might just be interested in this particular section of my PhD, which I will write up into a shorter article and share on SR when it's done.
The other (less interesting) sections of my PhD are about the rate of return on higher education in Cambodia, the contrasting financial features of personal equity and debt instruments, and modifying the profit-maximising assumption in micro-economic theory. You asleep yet? ;)
As long as you can stick it in a pop-economics machine for my tiny brain to process, I could see that being very interesting as well. But yeah, I suppose I mainly meant the SR section specifically. I assume you've read the other research that's already been published concerning SR, right? And, if you're concerned with how people behave, I assume you've read about Tony76 and other badly behaved vendors around here?
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I've seen various stories about bad vendors before, but always happy to read up on more stories if you can point me in the right direction.
My research will be looking at aggregated statistics, and not individual examples, but it's always good to get some context and a feel for the market.
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The reason I'm interested in SR is that it is an example of people contracting without any formal enforcement mechanism, and so it represents a potentially interesting case study in emergent institutions. Similar studies have been done regarding the informal rules of pirates, and the rules that have existed in various anarchist societies through history.
You make us sound so much more interesting than I think most of us really are... ::)
To be serious though, I'm not sure exactly what would constitute a "formal enforcement mechanism," if not escrow. The power of Silk Road is absolute, if they say you get no refund or you get no payment, so it shall come to pass. Is it a recognized major government? Obviously not, but in it's own way, it is a formal enforcement mechanism. Just not terribly major or anything anyone would call a government. I suppose you're studying economics though, aren't you -- the question of what constitutes a formal system really isn't part of your field of interest... so never mind I guess.
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I've seen various stories about bad vendors before, but always happy to read up on more stories if you can point me in the right direction.
My research will be looking at aggregated statistics, and not individual examples, but it's always good to get some context and a feel for the market.
You may have already read this stuff then but it's relevant so on the off chance that you haven't: Tony76 short version is http://allthingsvice.com/2012/05/30/the-great-420-scam/ and long version is at http://weirderweb.com/2012/12/03/the-ballad-of-tony76-weirder-web-2/
The take away from this and most other problem stories that I hear about SR is that I can't believe so many people willingly FE and open themselves up to this sort of stuff.
Regarding the research, http://arxiv.org/pdf/1207.7139v1 has the most widely known study done so far. I think it's been amended a bit since release and it's worth looking around for updates.
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You make us sound so much more interesting than I think most of us really are... ::)
To be serious though, I'm not sure exactly what would constitute a "formal enforcement mechanism," if not escrow. The power of Silk Road is absolute, if they say you get no refund or you get no payment, so it shall come to pass. Is it a recognized major government? Obviously not, but in it's own way, it is a formal enforcement mechanism. Just not terribly major or anything anyone would call a government. I suppose you're studying economics though, aren't you -- the question of what constitutes a formal system really isn't part of your field of interest... so never mind I guess.
I take your point about the value SR provides to buyers & sellers, but I would argue that it falls within what is commonly called an "emergent institution". When economists first started studying legal institutions (property rights, contract law, etc) it was generally assumed that these structures were set by government, which is generally the case. However, more recently a few economists won the nobel prize for opening up a discussion about how institutional evolve on their own, without government.
Of course, anarchists and fringe economists have been exploring this issue for a long time previously as well... but the nobel prize gives some intellectual cover that allows me to bring this topic into my PhD without being considered a total kook. :)
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@titfortat -- thanks for the links. Very interesting. I enjoyed the title of one article about scammers: "if you can't trust Britain's biggest online drug dealer; who can you trust?" :)
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2. the main point of the survey is to ask about the success of SR orders, which I wanted to simplify by putting into categories. I was thinking (a) arrived, as expected; (b) something arrived, but ripped off somehow; (c) didn't arrive, but I don't blame vendor (LE or lost in post); and (d) didn't arrive, I blame the vendor (scam). Any suggestions of other options or improvements I could make?
Alright, so i've been following this thread for a little while, and even though I don't think i can contribute that much, i feel an urge to share my five cents :) ...what I love about the underground communities such as this, is the fact that it's controlled by the people, and I, as an individual can have all the influence i want, unlike the real world where i merely feel like a bystander observing life as it goes around doing its daily routines.
So when I make a purchase i have the initial same feelings and thoughts as I experience when buying anything else on the internet. I've only been around SR since the beginning of January, but I enjoy the refreshing aspect of this particular market :) ..and from my experience it varies slightly from the more common internet shops, and further more I've noticed I act slightly different from when making a more 'regular' purchase.
I ran face-first into some minor complications right from my first order on here, and It's not because I didn't research the vendor or because I was sloppy, but this particular example makes it feel more down-to-earth than any other webshop i've been to before. So after clicking the 'make order' button, i was checking up on the order page like every hour (the impatience, oh the impatience)..and for a couple of days it would be stuck on "processing" which was very frustrating. So I jumped onto the forums and opened a discussion about my case and the responses were all the same "JUST PM THE FUCKING VENDOR!!!" (i dramatized that a bit with caps lock and curse words, I didn't get any replies like that, but reading between the lines, this was what they told me) .....and that's what I did, and within 24 hours I had a reply in my inbox.
... and this is the part where SR differentiates from the major online shops out there ...
the reply I got was written by an actual human, it had smileys and everything :) I'm so used to these standardized replies from customer services around the world, and if you finally get a human reply it has lots of copy/paste-material and a try-hard professional language that will be so formal you might as well talk to a robot ...
So still dealing with my first order, I've been mailing back and forth with the vendor since the order still didn't show up, and this has been quite an interesting experience, because first he tells me everything is alright ... 7 days later when there's still no package I get a reply saying "Oh, what was your order again? I might've forgotten to ship it" (also slightly dramatized) ...however the promise of a full refund or a reship wrapped in some calming smileys make this all alright, whereas if this has happened on an official online shop I would've been all over the internet throwing curse words around like a mad man telling everyone how retarded this shop is, however I don't feel the urge to do so in this case.
Ok, ok.. this input is getting longer than I had thought, and to answer the actual question, while waiting for my very first order to come through I've done some smaller side orders which all came through in the mean time and I love chatting a bit with the vendor before making the purchase, which makes this whole enviroment much more personal and user friendly (if used correctly). So I would like to add this factor to your survey; not sure how to put it, but something about how the communication with the vendor feels, if any. Because whether the package arrives or not suddenly doesn't feel as important to me as the treatment I get as a customer..
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@DrugBuddy -- Yeah, I was planning on compiling the feedback data as well, but that has a significant selection bias. The same is true of an informal survey that was done on the forum over a year ago. My goal is to do something closer to random sampling.
DrugBuddy has it - that's the easiest way to do it.
Sample something like 100 items with over say 10 sales, then just work from there.