Silk Road forums
Discussion => Philosophy, Economics and Justice => Topic started by: g00se on May 07, 2013, 12:01 pm
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What will happen if we invent robotics capable of replacing humankind as a source of labor?
Will capitalists wage tyrannical wars with their new robots in order to remain in power?
Will the government provide for those without jobs?
How should mankind approach this immense 'problem'- moving towards a technological possibility of humans becoming obsolete?
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An interesting question....
If there are no jobs available, no one can make money, so no one can buy the things made by the robots...
So, somehow, we got to find something for all those people to do...
Ideally, I would like to think that we would have people working in the R&D areas, but I doubt that the majority of the population would be able to do that. It would be interesting to see a study done on which areas of the economy are the most difficult/impossible to automate, and then see how we could fit the working population into those areas.
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Wait.... so, robots do everything? So... I can sit on my ass and smoke a bowl all day... while my little robot goes to work all day on my behalf?
Fuck yeah! ;D
(I know this isnt want you were getting at - but still.. a novel idea, no?)
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This is a question that has been asked since prehistory. Obviously it's an important one, but you could write books on it and still not cover all the angles.
Anyway Pine thinks that technology and employment have an S shaped relationship.
1. New Technology develops. A tiny handful of people work on it.
2. NT causes unemployment due to efficiency. Number of people working on the NT balloon in size.
3. New jobs are developed in some field, often not in the same one as the field the NT changed.
4. NT becomes so efficient layoffs begin and it becomes a smaller part of the economy (there isn't a relationship between size and importance since a very inefficient sector would have lots of people in work).
5. Repeat.
The potential of A.I is vastly overrated as any scientist will tell you. It is computer programs themselves that destroy jobs, not especially A.I systems. I mean a fair number of AI systems do jobs that humans can't do and never did do. The middle classes in their desk jobs will be thrown out of work long before the baby sitters, swimming instructors and gardeners get the chop. Robotics is getting better yes, but the majority of so called intellectual tasks like being a doctor, surgeon, lawyer or engineer are actually much easier for computer programs to automate than things which require physical movements. It's harder for computers to flip burgers than replace accountants. Most of the jobs we don't normally think of as being "hard" are easy for computers. Conversely computers make better mathematicians than your average human. Computers are capable of inventing new theorems but not making movies (except ones involving Adam Sandler).
Wait.. This would imply the Government program to encourage everybody to get a PhD is full of shit. Looks like Mommy and Daddy are full of it as well.
The future is drugs on the internet or developing killer robots, so get with the program comrades!
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Pine, you have it all wrong.
#1) We get AI and robots, they are quickly made to look human.
#2) Man makes an anatomically correct AI female robot
#3) women are no longer needed as they are replaced by robots that do what they are told, clean the house, cook the meals, and dont complain or demand you spend money on them.
#4) 2 generations later humanity is gone, no more children as robots can not get pregnant.
#5) Robotic AI takes over the world.
See, the human problem goes away on it's own.
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Pine, you have it all wrong.
#1) We get AI and robots, they are quickly made to look human.
#2) Man makes an anatomically correct AI female robot
#3) women are no longer needed as they are replaced by robots that do what they are told, clean the house, cook the meals, and dont complain or demand you spend money on them.
#4) 2 generations later humanity is gone, no more children as robots can not get pregnant.
#5) Robotic AI takes over the world.
See, the human problem goes away on it's own.
You're right, I didn't think of that. I was also reading that lesbians can have babies, no males involved. So the future is lesbian killer robots.
Science! What have you done?! :D
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Pine, you have it all wrong.
#1) We get AI and robots, they are quickly made to look human.
#2) Man makes an anatomically correct AI female robot
#3) women are no longer needed as they are replaced by robots that do what they are told, clean the house, cook the meals, and dont complain or demand you spend money on them.
#4) 2 generations later humanity is gone, no more children as robots can not get pregnant.
#5) Robotic AI takes over the world.
See, the human problem goes away on it's own.
You're right, I didn't think of that. I was also reading that lesbians can have babies, no males involved. So the future is lesbian killer robots.
Science! What have you done?! :D
I was just reading a news article about men not being needed anymore. How long until we have pregnant men? Lesbian killer robots would make a good movie.
Also, Micky Ds got around the whole trouble with burger flipping robots thing by making and automated grill that lowers a grill top that hanging up above the McDonalds grill onto the top of the patties so both sides are cooked at the same time and there is no need to flip the burger. How the employees still manage to mess up the burgers despite the process being automated I just don't know.
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Pine, you have it all wrong.
#1) We get AI and robots, they are quickly made to look human.
#2) Man makes an anatomically correct AI female robot
#3) women are no longer needed as they are replaced by robots that do what they are told, clean the house, cook the meals, and dont complain or demand you spend money on them.
#4) 2 generations later humanity is gone, no more children as robots can not get pregnant.
#5) Robotic AI takes over the world.
See, the human problem goes away on it's own.
You're right, I didn't think of that. I was also reading that lesbians can have babies, no males involved. So the future is lesbian killer robots.
Science! What have you done?! :D
I was just reading a news article about men not being needed anymore. How long until we have pregnant men? Lesbian killer robots would make a good movie.
Also, Micky Ds got around the whole trouble with burger flipping robots thing by making and automated grill that lowers a grill top that hanging up above the McDonalds grill onto the top of the patties so both sides are cooked at the same time and there is no need to flip the burger. How the employees still manage to mess up the burgers despite the process being automated I just don't know.
Damn, I was just going to suggest that..could have made money off that idea...
Professional jobs such as pine listed, I could see being automated. What I hope happens is that we see a larger portion of humanity pushing towards research jobs and at some point colonization of other planets/participation in the space navy that we WILL have.
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"We will successfully reverse-engineer the human brain by the mid-2020s. By the end of that decade, computers will be capable of human-level intelligence. Kurzweil puts the date of the Singularity — never say he's not conservative — at 2045. In that year, he estimates, given the vast increases in computing power and the vast reductions in the cost of same, the quantity of artificial intelligence created will be about a billion times the sum of all the human intelligence that exists today.
The core of a disagreement I'll have with a critic is, they'll say, Oh, Kurzweil is underestimating the complexity of reverse-engineering of the human brain or the complexity of biology. But I don't believe I'm underestimating the challenge. I think they're underestimating the power of exponential growth.
Kurzweil likes to point out that your average cell phone is about a millionth the size of, a millionth the price of and a thousand times more powerful than the computer he had at MIT 40 years ago. Flip that forward 40 years and what does the world look like? If you really want to figure that out, you have to think very, very far outside the box. Or maybe you have to think further inside it than anyone ever has before."
Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2048299,00.html#ixzz2Slym1zAi
"To show what AI researchers are up against, LeCun described the immensity of the human brain based on the latest, albeit very rough, estimates: 100 billion neurons make from 1,000 to 10,000 connections with other neurons and use those connections up to 100 to 1,000 times a second (a pretty high estimate). That's perhaps a quintillion — 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 — operations happening every second in everyone's head.
"But the power of supercomputers increases exponentially," said LeCun, estimating that they will reach that ability in "somewhere between 30 and a 100 years. Then we wait another 10 or 20 years, and it fits in your smartphone. So then your smartphone is smarter than you.""
Read more: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/05/rats-smarter-than-google-_n_1571103.html
I believe cognitive computing might be closer than we think.