Silk Road forums
Discussion => Security => Topic started by: FenderGuitarMan on June 19, 2012, 05:07 pm
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Like a nimrod I bought some coins today without first checking the charts. The asking price is over $6.50, more than a dollar more than last week! What might cause this type of increase? Do prices drop when the value goes up?
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I havn't followed the bitcoin scene recently, so i too am wondering why the large increase in value.
Bitcoins economy has always fluctuated a lot, i remember when it got close to $30 per bitcoin before a crash it has been slowly recovering from since.
Silkroad prices AFAIK are based on mtgox average, so it should work out the same for you as a buyer anyway.
That is actualy a feature that seems to be missing from silkroad, show the current exchange rate.
Only way i know to do it is change to display dollar value, then ad something to shopping cart & cart shows current exchange rate.
Surely there's an easier way though?
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Hey mungshroom,
I wonder how often they adjust the price based on mtgox? Is it done in real(ish) time?
I've read about the $30 BTC values but wasn't engaged in any buying/selling of BTC back then. Almost as exciting as an IPO tech stock!
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Its price is predicted to continue rising. Although there's certain unpredictable things these graphs may not account for.
http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/index.html
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Its nutty my last bitcoin purchase before my recent one I was slightly under $4 a coin- I just got some at $6.40- spent them real quick- but wishing I would've held onto my old bitcoin order- btc trade seems like itd be fun to get into if i had the time
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The amount of bitcoins is set to cap at 21 million, is it not? It would seem to make sense that the value would increase as we approach that time.
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No, I don't think that makes sense.
It is true that there is a cap. And furthermore, it becomes more and more difficult to find more bitcoins as the cap is approached. However, the total number of bitcoins is increasing, so all things being the same, the value of the bitcoin should fall.
What is happening, I think, is that the demand for bitcoins is increasing as it becomes more popular to use. Just like the value of the bitcoin rose sharply when some magazine published an article about Silkroad.
Funny, I wanted to make a purchase something here, but lacked 0.1BTC in my wallet. The day after the value had increased, so suddenly I had enough BTC. :)
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I'm pretty new to the bitcoin scene, but I'm wondering how much market manipulation comes into play. I've noticed huge blocks acting as stop-go's between what seem to be fundamental breakthrough thresholds; as if a number of investors are impacting prices more than natural market conditions.
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No, I don't think that makes sense.
It is true that there is a cap. And furthermore, it becomes more and more difficult to find more bitcoins as the cap is approached. However, the total number of bitcoins is increasing, so all things being the same, the value of the bitcoin should fall.
What is happening, I think, is that the demand for bitcoins is increasing as it becomes more popular to use. Just like the value of the bitcoin rose sharply when some magazine published an article about Silkroad.
Funny, I wanted to make a purchase something here, but lacked 0.1BTC in my wallet. The day after the value had increased, so suddenly I had enough BTC. :)
you're missing a key piece of information. that is the reward blocks are halfed at predetermined blocks, potentionly making the cost of electricity for mining coins more than the value of the coins earned as time goes on.
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@zingzong
Nah, I mentioned that Bitcoins were getting harder to find as we near the cap. But despite them being harder to find, the total amount of Bitcoins is still going up, which is what I meant that all things being equal, the value ought to go down.
So clearly there is something else going on. Other than Bitcoins gaining popularity, it could, as others have mentioned, be speculation.
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Being as it is that the current market capitalization of the entire quantity of circulating Bitcoins is only $50 million, it comes as no real surprise to me. As well, bearing in mind that the dollar value market cap. of the all world currencies combined is vastly bigger than $50 million, and also that the Bitcoin is inherently more valuable as as a currency than any fiat rubbish due to it's properties, the Bitcoin price can only continue to increase in relation to fiat currencies (notwithstanding unpredictable shocks of course). Has anyone ever seen a 150 year chart of the price of gold or silver?
One day, $31 per BTC will be a LOW price. The 10,000 BTC pizza will sound like ridiculous folklore (even more so than now)
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Being as it is that the current market capitalization of the entire quantity of circulating Bitcoins is only $50 million, it comes as no real surprise to me. As well, bearing in mind that the dollar value market cap. of the all world currencies combined is vastly bigger than $50 million, and also that the Bitcoin is inherently more valuable as as a currency than any fiat rubbish due to it's properties, the Bitcoin price can only continue to increase in relation to fiat currencies (notwithstanding unpredictable shocks of course). Has anyone ever seen a 150 year chart of the price of gold or silver?
One day, $31 per BTC will be a LOW price. The 10,000 BTC pizza will sound like ridiculous folklore (even more so than now)
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the inherent difference that gold and silver are tangible commodites? Traded and controlled in a regulated and global market. I have no idea if bitcoins will go to $31 or $311 or $311,111.11 (just spent my last one, so hopefully that doesn't happen tomorrow!), but it seems the difference is in market share, monetary supply, proven commodity track record, and maybe most importantly of all in these audit-heavy days, transparency.
I fucking love the things. But I'd be careful holding bitcoins in the hopes of becoming a millionaire.
Then again, I prefer to spend mine on drugs. Because everyone knows that drugs in your pocket today are worth way more than drugs in your pocket tomorrow :D
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the inherent difference that gold and silver are tangible commodites? Traded and controlled in a regulated and global market. I have no idea if bitcoins will go to $31 or $311 or $311,111.11 (just spent my last one, so hopefully that doesn't happen tomorrow!), but it seems the difference is in market share, monetary supply, proven commodity track record, and maybe most importantly of all in these audit-heavy days, transparency.
What I am alluding to is the fixed amount. Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting that the current price is "wrong" and that it should be trading at $50 or something. The value of any commodity at a given time is simply the aggregation of what the buyers and sellers are willing to settle on, i.e. it's all a little bit artificial. There is no absolute price for anything, unless you are trading like for like, which is technically not a very profitable trade, lol (e.g. 1 BTC will always be worth 1 BTC, sounds tautological I know, but if you don't get the point, then never mind).
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I'm with you BigScrote! Thanks everyone for participating. It was annoying that I was about .1 BTC away from being able to place the exact order I had in mind! I should have looked here. I wouldn't be surprised if there wasn't something like people doing little kindnesses for each other like sharing a fraction of a BTC to a friend in need! I'm new here so don't have any friends yet except for the few sellers I deal with. I didn't want to ask them for a special deal to avoid being labeled as a troublesome customer!
I am truly enjoying the world of SR and BTC. You gotta love free enterprise!
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I wonder how often they adjust the price based on mtgox? Is it done in real(ish) time?
Looks to me like it's every couple of minutes.
MockFrog
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What I am alluding to is the fixed amount. Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting that the current price is "wrong" and that it should be trading at $50 or something. The value of any commodity at a given time is simply the aggregation of what the buyers and sellers are willing to settle on, i.e. it's all a little bit artificial. There is no absolute price for anything, unless you are trading like for like, which is technically not a very profitable trade, lol (e.g. 1 BTC will always be worth 1 BTC, sounds tautological I know, but if you don't get the point, then never mind).
Ah gotcha. To me, the whole thing kinda seems like it trades like the pink sheets - but I'm really no expert.
And thank you for teaching me tautological - I love learning new words to add to my vocabulary (see what I did there?!)
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What I am alluding to is the fixed amount. Don't get me wrong, I'm not suggesting that the current price is "wrong" and that it should be trading at $50 or something. The value of any commodity at a given time is simply the aggregation of what the buyers and sellers are willing to settle on, i.e. it's all a little bit artificial. There is no absolute price for anything, unless you are trading like for like, which is technically not a very profitable trade, lol (e.g. 1 BTC will always be worth 1 BTC, sounds tautological I know, but if you don't get the point, then never mind).
Ah gotcha. To me, the whole thing kinda seems like it trades like the pink sheets - but I'm really no expert.
And thank you for teaching me tautological - I love learning new words to add to my vocabulary (see what I did there?!)
I've had to become much more expert than I ever planned to about commodities trading, but it was an inevitable result of someone like me getting involved.
I expect that, like me, the promise of a reliable supply of good quality drugs drew you to this place, but I'm 6 months deep here and the rabbit hole seems totally fucking limitless to me right now. And I thought that effect would wear off after I'd come to terms with some of the more revelatory aspects, but Satoshi and DPR have gone way too hard really. I'm constantly realizing the various ways in which Bitcoin will change our world, and I spend almost every waking minute in perpetual bliss. I've never been this content for so long.
It is highly likely that Bitcoin and it's repercussions will be retrospectively seen as one of the most important events in world history, like the World Wars. Possibly a World War could be involved, likely the most brutal yet (and likely the *ahem* Last World War). I don't care that much though. Why? Because I've been so well contented that I see it as churlish to be stroppy about nuclear annihilation, even if the Rothschilds and their banker cronies want to enslave the world's population at all costs, and even if that means getting corrupt Russia to kick off WW3 when they realize they can't get their own way.
Nothing I can do will directly alter the possibility of such a war, so these pathetic cowards can have it, I genuinely hope they can actually be happy with an entire planet to themselves. I expect this to be another of their baby-ish delusions though; to find yourself with a whole planet to yourself and then decide that now that you'd got it, maybe it wasn't what you wanted after all. We've all been there, lol
In the meantime, at least I've had a glimpse of what it's like to have true freedom (after all, SR has de facto decriminalized drugs, I don't know if anyone else has spotted this)
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€750 billion European Central Bank bailout fund has today been pledged to help stave off the increasing yields on Spanish and Italian government bonds. They're going to use the bailout fund to buy the bonds that the markets themselves will not touch.
Bitcoin price rise continues (marginally).
I lolled. I hope everyone else did.
This will likely have an unpleasant end if the markets still insist on high yields. It's not like the link between the yield rate and the amount of government bonds left unsold is set in stone; it's not. This is a very, very high risk strategy (the €750 billion part totally puts it in perspective, it basically amounts to an enormous bet that "everything will be alright, promise". If the markets don't agree with that sentiment, euro currency holders are pretty much screwed. "Minimum deposit guarantee" will become like a 21st century swear word)
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6.6399...... USD per....
Can't complain... I mine a good chunk of my BTC and that makes me happy :)
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No, I don't think that makes sense.
It is true that there is a cap. And furthermore, it becomes more and more difficult to find more bitcoins as the cap is approached. However, the total number of bitcoins is increasing, so all things being the same, the value of the bitcoin should fall.
What is happening, I think, is that the demand for bitcoins is increasing as it becomes more popular to use. Just like the value of the bitcoin rose sharply when some magazine published an article about Silkroad.
Funny, I wanted to make a purchase something here, but lacked 0.1BTC in my wallet. The day after the value had increased, so suddenly I had enough BTC. :)
you're missing a key piece of information. that is the reward blocks are halfed at predetermined blocks, potentionly making the cost of electricity for mining coins more than the value of the coins earned as time goes on.
What little time I've spent poking around hacker forums suggests to me that most bitcoin mining is done by botnets, putting the cost's of electricity on the unwitting bots.
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I bought my first BTC right after the big MtGox fiasco at around $13. They went to $15ish pretty quick and then dove. I'm glad I was only in them for specific purchases, although my first one was a lesson in escrow. I'd like to think that crook held them as they dropped to under $5ish, which seems to be where they are really valued. We will see if they drop back there soon.
This could just be a manifestation of the Feds 2 day meeting and the excitement that always stirs up in markets.
I haven't even checked.....what is the biggest "legitimate" use for them? Is there one? Not according to anyone who wants to tax you.
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The price was 6.66 just a minute ago. Maybe that will scare some people away and btc will drop. Either that, or people will just buy more now hahaha
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Then again, I prefer to spend mine on drugs. Because everyone knows that drugs in your pocket today are worth way more than drugs in your pocket tomorrow :D
Wow, great quote!
And that's why I'm so pissed when the vendor estimates my order to arrive in one period but it comes to me a month later (or never shows)! Vendor's like, "dude, you got the drugs anyway, right?" and I'm like "but I was planning on using them a month ago! that's a month of my time gone! i might not even need them anymore (or have ordered from different vendor)!"
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Also, with the increase in BTC value, I hope more vendors tie their prices to dollar rather than BTC. Because of rise of BTC, shopping on SR today is way more expensive than it was a month ago.
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Lol keep some coins, people. There are 8 decimal places in Bitcoin for a reason you know ;)
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6.83039 last price at gox
Where will it stop? I wonder if there will be a correction in the market soon...
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It is highly likely that Bitcoin and it's repercussions will be retrospectively seen as one of the most important events in world history, like the World Wars. Possibly a World War could be involved, likely the most brutal yet (and likely the *ahem* Last World War). I don't care that much though. Why? Because I've been so well contented that I see it as churlish to be stroppy about nuclear annihilation, even if the Rothschilds and their banker cronies want to enslave the world's population at all costs, and even if that means getting corrupt Russia to kick off WW3 when they realize they can't get their own way.
Causes of the Third World War. Under long-term will be Bitcoins.
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Causes of the Third World War. Under long-term will be Bitcoins.
Possibly. Let's not talk as though it's 100% inevitable, I wouldn't want the notion to become some kind of common belief
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It's because tony is holding onto his fucking huge loot still! ;)
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Also, with the increase in BTC value, I hope more vendors tie their prices to dollar rather than BTC. Because of rise of BTC, shopping on SR today is way more expensive than it was a month ago.
well technically vendors need to price their items accordingly i always drop prices if btc value increases and vice versa,
i wish SR automated this by allowing vendors to hedge in other currencies cos for me dollar is useless
also on interslango 1btc = 6.47 USD
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I think I am reading two conflicting things here. Some are implying that SR adjusts the prices of items based on MtGox price, and others seem to be implying that this doesn't happen automatically. It seems to me that most of the products I've been shopping for do seem to adjust to the relative value of USD to BTC. Is this perhaps an option that is at the seller's discretion? Do they have the ability to set the price in BTC or anchored to some USD price?
It would make it less stressful for a regular joe like me if I knew that the products were anchored to a USD price and that the BTC price will adjust accordingly!
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Is this perhaps an option that is at the seller's discretion? Do they have the ability to set the price in BTC or anchored to some USD price?
It's precisely that. Although some (unenlightened) vendors object to how quickly the price responds to the changing BTC value, i.e. not fast enough for their liking.
Remember that the prices are only changing in dollar terms, though. 1 BTC will always be valued at 1 BTC in BTC terms! It seems an odd thing to say, but I'm attempting a bit of futurology here: the price of all these drugs will go down in BTC terms a great deal over time, as if the Bitcoin really fulfills its potential, its price in dollars can only ever rise in the long term. In a post-fiat world, small deals of drugs will cost a fraction of 1BTC.
Buy coins low and hold them. You will thank yourself profusely in a couple of years time. Perhaps even in a few months. (don't spend them on drugs, they're the most important savings you will ever deposit, use your regular income for that)
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I think the BTC value has some to do with the BFL Asic's that are being "Prepaid" for..... thousands worth of BTC are being prepaid for these super mining units....
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The cause of the BTC rise is down to the basic laws of supply and demand, nothing more complicated than that.
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Is anyone here an economist that can really get an accurate idea of what will happen? What about factoring in the what goes into the value of a currency?
1.present value
2. future value
this currency isn't affected by unemployment right?
supply and demand
foreign currency
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The cause of the BTC rise is down to the basic laws of supply and demand, nothing more complicated than that.
Absolutely. If you look at mt gox 30 day graph you'll see large trades correlate with increasing value.
Also for interest .. use google trends / insights to track the term "bitcoin" or "btc". You'll see it maps pretty well with the BTC value.
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And I thought that effect would wear off after I'd come to terms with some of the more revelatory aspects, but Satoshi and DPR have gone way too hard really. I'm constantly realizing the various ways in which Bitcoin will change our world, and I spend almost every waking minute in perpetual bliss. I've never been this content for so long.
It is highly likely that Bitcoin and it's repercussions will be retrospectively seen as one of the most important events in world history, like the World Wars.
Agreed on both counts. It sounds like hyperbole at first. But then you *actually* think about it... There are natural implications that unfold from using P2P systems and strong cryptography.
Then you realize in 20 years time the world is going to be completely different, it's going to be the world for a younger generation born and bred on computer networks, using encryption systems like PGP and currency systems like Bitcoin in a fluent manner that took us years to achieve. The older generation, they are seriously in the cold as never before, ignorant in the same way that an illiterate, innumerate person today is considered.
I don't think it's Bitcoin specifically in a way, but cryptographic anonymous currency as a concept, albeit there's a good chance it'll be the banner currency because the Black Market is in the vanguard, and I think the Pornography and Gambling Markets will likely follow due to various regulatory efforts at both sides of the Atlantic. Bitcoin is a Vice Currency, and will be for the foreseeable future. That's fine, those are the highest profit margin sources at this moment in time and scale.
What I think has really happened, is that it is now possible, practical in many ways (still evolving) for a transnational currency to exist without government backing. Anonymity or not, that is huge. This is bigger than the Berlin Wall coming down and the subsequent Collapse of Communism. I mean, for just one thing, the vast majority of operations a Bank does today are completely surpassed by this P2P network. They are dinosaurs and will suffer the fate of dinosaurs unless they act nimbly enough.
I think the future contains many competing currencies, but relatively few national currencies. Because we have ample computation, issues of standardization and exchange become a moot point. Some currencies will be anonymous like ours, others not.
I don't think the government appreciates the implications. At. All. There are individuals who do, but the superstructure still thinks it's 'a geek thing'. The question is not whether the horse has bolted, but whether we can be sure the governments will not fly apart as vast swaths of capital flee the traditional regulated currency markets into this new territory, as a result of tax evasion, unrepresentative taxation is pissing off corporations and citizens alike. I mean, we can *obviously* expect much higher taxes and higher inflation into the middle future as a result of government policies in America and Europe.
In our situation, we are backed by the Dopamine Standard. There is none higher. In a way SR could be completely destroyed, its participants executed and it wouldn't matter a jot. Once the idea is out, it is like a virus. Cryptographic currencies will become the defacto standard in the full meaning of that Latin word.
€750 billion European Central Bank bailout fund has today been pledged to help stave off the increasing yields on Spanish and Italian government bonds. They're going to use the bailout fund to buy the bonds that the markets themselves will not touch.
Bitcoin price rise continues (marginally).
I lolled. I hope everyone else did.
This will likely have an unpleasant end if the markets still insist on high yields. It's not like the link between the yield rate and the amount of government bonds left unsold is set in stone; it's not. This is a very, very high risk strategy (the €750 billion part totally puts it in perspective, it basically amounts to an enormous bet that "everything will be alright, promise". If the markets don't agree with that sentiment, euro currency holders are pretty much screwed. "Minimum deposit guarantee" will become like a 21st century swear word)
Yup. It was the first thing I thought of reading the headlines, I doubt we were the only ones.
Markets, collectively, are the most intelligent sentient networks there are. It is the largest structure ever built in history, supercomputers and even the human brain itself don't touch it. Millions of human brains at work aided by computation at the speed of light, it's tendrils of influence manipulating and forming the actions of billions of intelligent self directed agents. The Market is the dominant economic paradigm for the last three or four centuries, and when her mood changes all previous assumptions about life are rendered invalid. The Communists were afraid of that power, the Capitalists stood in awe of it. Both sentiments are appropriate for this. The action of Democracy, although important, is a runt in comparison to the raw power of the Market.
There is the sense everywhere, that this titanic entity is about to make up it's mind about something.
I think it will be to tell the "3rd way" style of Western governments to go fuck itself.
Neither the Socialists or Capitalists are remotely happy with this crappy centrism. It helps neither of us and pays no dividends.
It's not a matter of Bitcoin being volatile, or even viable in the very long term (because it isn't, eventually all the bitcoins will get lost). It's a matter of whether you think a general (tightly regulated) market failure, hyperinflation and excessive taxation are going to devaluate your currency less than a currency which is much less connected to those problems thanks to the lack of government power over it.
Look at it this way. Every natural catastrophic event also has a mass extinction event that claims its victims. In recessions, investors lose capital, companies die and people lose their jobs.
In this 'Great Recession' the government tells us we're all out of (but nobody believes it), we have had victims, mostly the general public, but even they have been placated by welfare schemes. But I think they will not be the main causalities. I mean look at the financial sector. How many new banks can you count in America or Europe? Typically when a bank dies, you have a dozen smaller upstarts trying to claim its territory. This has NOT happened. The government has supported the banks, but I don't think they appreciate the Market is more powerful than they are, if the government supports the banks it is going to get sucked into a vortex.
Cryptographic Currency is becoming a weapon for both left wing and right wing citizens to defect from the traditional political economy as it stands today. I spoke today with a very left wing young man, who is vehemently opposed to my Capitalist ideology, but we agreed *extremely* on the solution, which was completely opposed to literally everything the governments have done since 2007. You cannot not make this political, it just is. When right wingers and left wingers are actually agreeing with each other, you have a fairly fucking serious problem. I think it's time for this sleepy younger generation to wake up and give our System the finger. The dead hand of the State is forcing the younger generation to pay huge taxes to pay for the lifestyles of the older one in a manner so entirely disproportionate I cannot think it will end up in anything but revolution.
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The cause of the BTC rise is down to the basic laws of supply and demand, nothing more complicated than that.
A truer word was never said!
At the risk of being thought uncool, it should be understood by all that this is a zero sum game. That is: if you speculate and win B$, somebody else loses that B$ in exact proportion.
Yes, Bitcoin has inflation, but so too does *any* other currency. Strictly speaking you have increasing prices, so it may sound daft to talk of a zero sum game, but you must understand folks, that it is a zero sum game *of exchange value*. You have twice as much money in USD? That's awesome, but you could just as easily have had half as much money in USD as the older vendors on here are well aware of.
If you speculate, you will lose. At best, get even. If you get lucky and stay out, then you could win, but that risk is enormous. If you want to do it intelligently, study the lore of arbitrage.
The law of the Efficient Market Hypothesis is obeyed here in the realm of Bitcoin, just like it is in the housing market, in the commodity market, in the stock market, in the bond market...
The majority of rapid fluctuations you are seeing are connected to speculative activity rather than fundamentals.
It is only over the course of a year or more that you can say whether a currency is becoming weaker or stronger. In the short term, human psychology drives markets rather than economics.
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It's just like buying a stock on the stockmarket. When there is big volume on the buy side, prices rise. So, when a lot of people are trying to purchase BTC, the price will invariably rise. As mentioned by another poster, you can see big trade blocks go through then a rise in BTC price. As Lim said, it's basic supply and demand at work.
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should check out the bitcointalk forum and check out what Pirateat40 is doing..... millions worth of BTC under his control :P
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The cause of the BTC rise is down to the basic laws of supply and demand, nothing more complicated than that.
+1 . This is all you really need to know. The rest of trade currencies are the same black magic as BTC ;-)