Silk Road forums
Discussion => Off topic => Topic started by: anarcho47 on May 09, 2012, 03:59 am
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I've been hearing stuff flying around about a lot of vendors shutting down or taking a hiatus. Anyone have anything firm on who, for how long, and why?
I'm personally considering a however-long-it-ends-up-being vacation, myself. There's been a lot of turmoil within the community lately and new legislation coming down the pipeline in many western nation-states increasing the size of the hammer they use to come after us. Might be a good time to lay low for a while. I don't know, it's something I'm mulling. I'm all caught up on orders other than a handful that will ship at the end of the week, and I am still waiting on my re-up as it stands, so I could just closer it down for a while.
What do you guys think?
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I'd keep plugging mate, but then that's just me.
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I would begin limiting sales, personally
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Id say its all up to you, no body here knows how you operate/measures of safety, if you dont feel safe doing it you shouldnt need us telling you, sounds like you want to be here for the community which shows good salesmanship but honestly I agree with your sentiment,
this site has had such a shady environment since day 1, i think SRs downfall is the shear number of people here although not big in reality, for an online venue for drugs this certainly has been the biggest one, theres not many here with good intentions,many just wants to steal and horde as many bitcoins as possible,
plus youve been here for a year, thats a long time especially if you work alone which I assume alot of sellers do maybe other than a select handful knowing what they do, if a break is what you you feel than definitely go with that,
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a month on the beach smoking chillums in goa ............doctors orders :D
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Yeah, if you need a break, you should take one.
We need more vendors like you here, slinging shit the right way and sticking it out for the long run.
So don't burn yourself out, chillax. I'll be here for your re-up, whenever it happens.
-Proud
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I love Silk Road but it's become a gong show lately. Add in the other factors and it has to make one ask themselves if it's really worth it. Especially as a vendor.
You know things are getting weird if anarcho47 is considering taking a vacation. He's been a stalwart vendor throughout all of this. Something's gotta change...
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Just got back from a two week vacation, I say go for it! I did however limit my sales due to all of the paranoia pumping out of SR.
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I can see SR slowly changing into a "wholesale" only scene to minimize orders but still profit for vendors....
mailing grams, 10 strips , a couple of tablets etc must get tedious for the guys that do small amounts
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Yeah, it's kind of funny. I was here back when bitcoins were fluctuating 10% per DAY, every fucking day. No hedging, so the shadier sellers would cancel customer orders if bitcoins dropped off in price and leave buyers holding the bag on the losses. It was a warzone for a while lol. I was here back when pharmville was just starting out, most of the vendors that were with me are gone. I vended wholesale on OVDB for a bit before admin decided to pull the plug. It's been a pretty wild ride. Hell, I remember DPR vending when this place was very small. It was a very unstable time and I think that's what made me say "fuck it, I'm all in on this one". I couldn't even tell you how many packages I have sent to all four corners of the earth, and it's been a hell of a ride all the way through.
If I do go on hiatus I think it's just going to be a temporary thing. I couldn't even say how long, and that doesn't mean I wouldn't still check in on the site and see what everyone's up to, just cut out vending for a while.
We did and do have something great going here. This is counter-economics at its finest using all of the most up-to-date tools possible to undermine the massive violence that is the state. It is a grand project and an even grander dream.
The funny thing is, though, the waters just feel murky all of a sudden. I can't say it's for any tangible reason. I still sell out every time I list stuff, I still have a nice list of regular buyers and am constantly sending off to new customers as well. I will say that my "non-received" have gone up in the last 4 weeks on a % of total sales, and the general attitude on the site has deteriorated for a few months now. Tonygate, USD (who knows what the FUCK is going on there - I'm still on the fence on that one, even with the tiny fraction of withdrawals compared to what he sold on FE going to Nomad's donor address).
I'm a dinosaur on this site now lol. One year vending full time, never getting too greedy so I draw too much attention, but doing a steady pace that I can handle. Part of it is that I closed off some new contracts on my legit business a couple months ago that have really picked up my sales and I need to devote more time to that (also beneficial is the fact I don't have to worry about rotting in a jail cell and I can still bring in awesome money for my family).
Mostly, though, it's just a gut thing. We could be seeing psyops right now, which in my mind is the only way to really combat SR unless they build up some sort of infrastructure to monitor bitcoins in-depth and get all of the exchangers by the throat, which would likely take years, given the general level of incompetence when it comes to government anything. It may be coming, but then again you'll just see new exchanges popping up like weeds and volumes will shift. I just don't like what I'm feeling from the community right now, and everyone even on the home front up the supply chain has been edgy lately (there was a bust a while back up the ranks, had to change everything up and we're still smarting). I think we are going to see governments get as violent as ever while they still have money to pay their mercs, which could only be a year or two or two decades.
Whatever I decide, I will make my decision within the next week. I'm out of town for business right now and will be giving this some serious thought. I appreciate everyone's input so far and look forward to more. I just want a good discussion without any trolling on where we as a community are taking this thing and what we can do to fight back against the poison and stay as low key as possible. I love vending on here, I've made some good anonymous friends and love getting messages about how I'm helping people with their pain or anxiety or whatever, or even just getting something into their hands at a price they can't even get locally. It's awesome.
Either way, many of you guys are fantastic human beings - if I'm set to travel the road a bit longer with you guys, I'm looking forward to it. If not, it's been a damned honor.
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Yes, this is something I've also been thinking about for the past two weeks, here are my thoughts so far.
There are two possible scenarios when you get right down to it:
1. There is a crackdown, either in progress or imminent.
2. There is a FUD campaign, possibly spontaneous, possibly LE directed, or both.
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I have a speculation. I cannot prove it, but it fits neatly.
Specifically the vendor tony76 may have been intercepted by LE. This most probably would have occurred because of sloppy packaging practices and the high volume, so maybe a stray hair or fingerprint. Chances are good that tony76 already had a criminal record, so then they got him. Alternatively there was a tangential investigation related to RL activity and this implicated tony76, perhaps through his sourcing on the streets, or an informant in his circle of pals etc.
In any case however it happened, I believe that the FBI realized a potential asset to the (monstrous) SR casefile, that is that they could implement a psy-ops or psychological operations attack on the Silk Road. The method used would be quite simple;
-> Bust high profile vendor at an optimal point such as the 420 sale, followed by an orchestrated escalation of fear mongering -> panicked buyers -> angry customers -> depressed community -> less economic activity.
This would be simple but effective, think about this: There are 3 legs to the cyber-punk stool that is SR.
1. Anonymity (in terms of information: Tor Network, in terms of financing: Bitcoin).
2. Public Key Cryptography.
3. The Reputation System.
Out of these, an FBI agent with training in psychology would be bound to tell you that in terms of getting most bang for your buck with respect to technological constraints, the Reputation System is by far the weakest link. Their bosses agreed and the show was on.
Secondly, even if the Reputation System was not the weakest link, it is still the *most politically available link*, because PGP and the Tor/Bitcoin networks have plenty of political backing for various not-so-obvious reasons. Included, for just one example, would be the fact that if the NSA managed to crack PGP or compromise Tor, it would be both an immense waste of taxpayer's resources and a 'home goal' in terms of national security to tell or infer that to everybody else. The intelligence agencies of the world look at each other like hungry dogs hunting for weaknesses, an attack on SR would be extensively examined to see if any hitherto unknown technology was used to interfere with the network. That is why congressional appeals will fall on deaf ears. It makes a kind of sense. Our network is not merely anonymous purely because of the use of clever technology, but also because of a broader information arms race. SR is plonked squarely into the middle of the information equivalent of the DMZ, rather neatly making us untouchable from a new technological attack vector (doesn't include conventional use of tech e.g. DDOS).
I thought that Bitcoin was the weakest link previously, but they probably worked out that by attacking Bitcoin directly by outlawing the exchanges they would produce a system in which P2P bitcoin/cash exchanges would become more likely. Not just whack-a-mole, but whack-a-mole and then he pops up elsewhere a thousand times over. At least by using AML regulations they can constrict flow, monitor the situation, pick up potential leads etc. This is the "Death by a Thousand Cuts" theory. Also gives them a potential death switch a few years down the road, so if this network reaches the millions I think it will, then they can say they were doing something useful to the central government, if they use it now, then that option is gone forever.
So; we now know 1 very important thing by our deductions: they are attempting to destroy the Reputation System to retard the network's growth. The only question is, have they already struck? Or are they preparing to?
Again, I know this is a speculation. It's just that there is literally no evidence for a broad systemic crackdown, it doesn't logically stack up. Where is the connection? Really? Beyond a gut feeling? It's not enough to think vendors are evaporating, you got to explain why this is the case using either inductive or deductive logic. If you have a reason why a systemic crackdown would occur, then tell me. Until then, the 2nd option makes more sense to me.
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It's the trolls and the growth. There's a shit ton of people trying to lie and scam, either to cause dissent because they don't like the idea of SR and are morally against it, or because they want something for nothing. My guess is it's both. Probably young kids seeing this shit on TV and thinking 'NO WAY, I gotta try this out.' then they're either too stupid or too broke to acquire bitcoins and be a legit buyer. So, they troll the forums. Or they get a few bitcoin and make a purchase and then try to scam the vendor and get free shit. When that doesn't work, they post hate threads in the forums, which causes annoyance towards new buyers. It's a never ending spiral of doom. I really think that the admin need to clean this place up. I'm not a big player by any means, but I do buy what I need/want when I need/want it. If there's 500+ fake ass forum accounts, they need to go. Same with buyer accounts. I know it'd be a PITA to do, but it NEEDS to be done. The SR is slowly letting in a Trojan horse, and I really don't want to rely on my shady ass street dealers. :( The love from some people in this place is amazing. I've been here what, a month? So I know my word counts for jack shit. And I accept that. But some people here are amazing. Most are not. But some are.
Excuse my digression, but now you know my thoughts. :P
Back to you taking a break. Do it. Seriously. EVERYONE needs a break every now and then. Just keep up on your lotto. ;)
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The funny thing is, though, the waters just feel murky all of a sudden. I can't say it's for any tangible reason. I still sell out every time I list stuff, I still have a nice list of regular buyers and am constantly sending off to new customers as well. I will say that my "non-received" have gone up in the last 4 weeks on a % of total sales, and the general attitude on the site has deteriorated for a few months now. Tonygate, USD (who knows what the FUCK is going on there - I'm still on the fence on that one, even with the tiny fraction of withdrawals compared to what he sold on FE going to Nomad's donor address).
Mostly, though, it's just a gut thing. We could be seeing psyops right now, which in my mind is the only way to really combat SR unless they build up some sort of infrastructure to monitor bitcoins in-depth and get all of the exchangers by the throat, which would likely take years, given the general level of incompetence when it comes to government anything. It may be coming, but then again you'll just see new exchanges popping up like weeds and volumes will shift. I just don't like what I'm feeling from the community right now, and everyone even on the home front up the supply chain has been edgy lately (there was a bust a while back up the ranks, had to change everything up and we're still smarting). I think we are going to see governments get as violent as ever while they still have money to pay their mercs, which could only be a year or two or two decades.
I pretty much agree with everything you've said. Whatever decision you make, you have my full support.
I gotta tell you that the water cooler conservations here are certainly more interesting than in RL ;)
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Also, a golden rule of psychological warfare: If they're busy fighting each other, it's harder for them to fight us.
Sadly, it seems to be working thus far.
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@ Pine - I'm not saying I feel like there's an imminent bust or anything like that. You're talking about something that, unless some new technology has popped up VERY recently, is logistically impossible for an institution like a government to pull off.
For me it's more personal. I've put in a year, done my best to do right by every single person who has done business with me (according to the NAP ;) ), always shared a loss with my customers when packaging didn't arrive, etc. But with the shakeup way up the chain from me, the general attitude on the road these days, my own legit businesses expanding and needing me more and more, etc, I am seriously considering taking a long break from vending for a while. If there are any federal cops out there profiling my shit and trying to track me down, a dead-time is just what I need to get them reassigned to something more "current".
It will also give me a chance to re-evaluate my entire operation (which I must say I've tweaked into a damned secure system as it stands) and do an in-depth search for any issues that might come up down the road.
We'll see where things stand at the end of the week. I could just be having an extended bout of paranoia, which I think is only natural for someone in my vocation to get from time to time. Either way I'm not bailing on anyone without meeting any prior commitments I have made and I will still be around to lend an ear to those who have questions or need advice in this profession, even if I do take down the wares for a while.
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When are you putting up you listing for "Vendor Academy" classes ;P
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We'll see where things stand at the end of the week. I could just be having an extended bout of paranoia, which I think is only natural for someone in my vocation to get from time to time. Either way I'm not bailing on anyone without meeting any prior commitments I have made and I will still be around to lend an ear to those who have questions or need advice in this profession, even if I do take down the wares for a while.
That's fine by me, anybody would say you've already done more than enough, and definitely much more than most too. I was thinking out loud in the context of the strategic level previously, so don't worry I wasn't criticizing you personally :) Business decisions are separate from the macro level, you needn't feel beholden to the Silk Road at all. That baby is much bigger than you or me or even DPR at this point. I know you've been thinking about this for quite a while too, so that is proof positive to me. Now is as good a time as any to take a break.
I always think that a period of reflection is good for you, personally and for business. Pine also escaped from here for a couple of weeks a while back. I made an extensive post on the subject to a fellow who was feeling stressed, so here's a link (Pine abhors waste, but is too indulgent to quite get the hang of haiku).
http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=20347.msg208492#msg208492