Silk Road forums
Discussion => Shipping => Topic started by: SavoyFan on February 29, 2012, 09:53 pm
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SWIM would like to buy 10, maybe 15 grams of molly. He is wondering whether the potential for bad things to happen if found out are far more likely at that amount vs 5 grams.
I have heard of the ten gram rule but is that set in stone or more like a general idea?
TY
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That's just a general guideline. If your vendor knows what they're doing, there's no problem. I know a vendor who will ship up to 250g per package and very rarely has interceptions.
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The 10g rule is something I just say off the top of my head. Yes it's arbitrary, but there's a rationale behind it.
I think it's obvious that the chances of interception rise geometrically with respect to package size. When you look at all the interception/arrest stories, it's almost always > 1kg.
Now, I also believe that most drug dealers couldn't distribute through the postal system since they don't do their research. If the package is greater than 1kg I don't think you can pop it into a USPS blue box, which means they almost certainly were on the PO camera paying for the shipping of > 1kg of cocaine or whatever. Which seriously calls into question their I.Q.
What the max quantity you should ship really depends on is:
= Professionalism of the vendor
= Time
But seriously, why does anyone ship > 1kg at all?
Even beside the fact the PO is more likely to intercept, diversification is always a good thing in this business for a variety of reasons, the higher the quantity shipped, the more incentive the other guy has to rip you off. But if you ship in smaller quantities, you're the golden goose who lays the golden eggs. I think if you have a desire to put a tracking number on a package, then you are shipping in too large a quantity.
You could just as easily ship 10 1/10 kg packages with probably 10 times less chance of being intercepted! I can't prove it, but I'm pretty sure you're a 100 times less likely to be intercepted with a 10g package.
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I have ordered up to 10gr with success..I have had several orders out of the Netherlands, but the only order I have lost was 10gr from a highly reputable seller, however it was also the only transaction I've done out of escrow, so take that for what you will. The "reship" to a completely different address never made it either. I have had other 10gr orders arrive safely.
Pine: I think you underestimate how many drugs are traveling through the Postal Service. I was watching a documentary on this subject, and busts of ~25-50kg of cocaine have been found being shipped through the postal service. Over 43,403 lbs were shipped in 2009, and the rate goes up every year. Now take into account how much actually makes it to the destination? The success rate among SR forum members is 97%...
Personally, I probably would not order more than 1/2 oz of molly at a time. While I know the risk of seizure is low, I'm not at a point where I can stand to lose $600..But I have no doubt amounts up to a pound or more would have no problem going through the postal service, especially from a domestic vendor like Tony.
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So if I wanted to order say 15 grams do you guys think it would be better to have it shipped in 2 two different envelopes on different days rather than one envelope?
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I'd say the main risk is getting selectively scammed.
I'd also encourage you to split the order in to two deliveries, not because of a significant difference in interception rates, but because it could reduce the risk of a controlled delivery/surveillance (surveillance being what I'm scared of) in the unlikely case that it is intercepted.
If possible, try to use an intermediary address, then write RTS on the package and leave it for a few days before taking it to its final destination.
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Surveillance? What would I have to do in order to earn that honor? I have lost two packages from the NL, could that possibly put me on a list?
Other than that I am 100% with all my other orders
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Surveillance? What would I have to do in order to earn that honor? I have lost two packages from the NL, could that possibly put me on a list?
Other than that I am 100% with all my other orders
If you've received packages since then, then it's unlikely. Regarding surveillance I have no idea, but I'd imagine larger amounts than what we're discussing.
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Pine: I think you underestimate how many drugs are traveling through the Postal Service. I was watching a documentary on this subject, and busts of ~25-50kg of cocaine have been found being shipped through the postal service. Over 43,403 lbs were shipped in 2009, and the rate goes up every year. Now take into account how much actually makes it to the destination? The success rate among SR forum members is 97%...
Personally, I probably would not order more than 1/2 oz of molly at a time. While I know the risk of seizure is low, I'm not at a point where I can stand to lose $600..But I have no doubt amounts up to a pound or more would have no problem going through the postal service, especially from a domestic vendor like Tony.
The success rate on SR is 97.51%, and although we're rightfully proud of that figure, it's only there because we are smart and don't take huge risks all at once. I'll bet no participant in my survey was shipping > 1kg.
Here is the thing, the DEA focus most of their energies on catching distributors, followed by dealers. A pound suggests a distributor, but ~40 packages containing ~10 grams just says dealer(s), especially when you alternate your packaging, return addresses etc. While they analyze every little drug package they get hold of, that's much different to continually trying to compare different packages to look for clues indicating a single seller. The most they can do, providing you didn't leave biometric samples for them to collect, is take a photo and look for very similar matches with a pattern matching algorithm. Except all business post pretty much looks the same, so it's a bit of an extreme reach if the seller is alternating the packages he uses.
I doubt they do that just yet though. They didn't even have a international fingerprint sharing program until very recently I'm told, it's a recent innovation. Fingerprints have been taken from crime scenes for around a century...
I admire the Australian police, they keep us on our toes for sure even though logistics play a role in supporting them, but their style of thinking is a rarity, most police are old school and imagine the blue 'e' is the internet.
Anyway, with the high value drugs, the costs of postage and time spent doing professional reverse package profiling etc is relatively trivial overhead (but probably not for weed, which must clearly suck since it's also the easiest drug to detect).
The overhead of the additional packaging and fuss is more than compensated for by the:
- 'going under the radar insurance'
- greater probability of packages making it through, thus saving you money in the long term.
If you're shipping below the felony amount (usually ~ 20-30g depending on your state), then anybody who gets a controlled delivery can at most expect a misdemeanor charge which at the most will translate to a couple of days in lock-up or a fine.
A good vendor on here easily can shift 1000 or more packages a month. By next year, I expect a zero to be added to that and vendors will become truly corporate by starting hiring to keep up with the growth.
That's the strategy I'm comfortable with. I'm not saying it's the only strategy around, but I'm telling you it can scale up magnificently if you have the right equipment and process and you've practically no chance of getting caught.
There is also another reason to prefer my model.
Eventually, the Silk Road or a similar site will become huge, the literal so-called Amazon.com of drugs. When that happens, the vertically integrated business strategies that don't depend on middlemen will be the ones that succeed. Look at your high street, there isn't as many electronic stores and bookshops as there would be if Amazon.com and Ebay.com didn't exist. Similarly, the middle of the drug chain, thanks to modern technology, is going to take a huge hit over this century. They took our jobs man! etc
Meanwhile, the manufacturers and growers of drugs will be able to monopolize all the way from the factory/field right down to the customer. This is classic business economics 101.
So in the long term, Roberts is correct. The Silk Road concept will create a less violent world and a more predictable one. Somehow I think even LEO will be pleased with the end result even if they fight it every step of the way.
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Wow, props for one cool ass post. Mini-story I believe would be a better adjective actually 8)
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@pine - yeah, nice little essay here! you know a lot of that kind of stuff? it's always interesting for me to read that kind of "insider info"... haha... ;) just one point: what kind of vendor should be able to shift 1000x+ orders/ month? second point: so, you say that they have a worldwide network, where they can compare fingerprints now... do you think, that they will also take fingerprints (from a "crime scene") from envelopes or parcels with drugs, when they get seized? ::)
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@pine - yeah, nice little essay here! you know a lot of that kind of stuff? it's always interesting for me to read that kind of "insider info"... haha... ;) just one point: what kind of vendor should be able to shift 1000x+ orders/ month? second point: so, you say that they have a worldwide network, where they can compare fingerprints now... do you think, that they will also take fingerprints (from a "crime scene") from envelopes or parcels with drugs, when they get seized? ::)
Since vendors are commonly advised to handle all outgoing packages with gloves (double-layered if using latex), I would imagine that yes, LEO can and will take fingerprints from whatever evidence they have. :P
Especially in a situation like we have here, where identifying information is kept to a bare minimum. LEO would be grasping at straws if they tried to pinch a vendor from the buyer's side of the transaction. Looking for fingerprints might be their best bet. So roll your eyes if you like, but yes. They would. ::)
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@pine - yeah, nice little essay here! you know a lot of that kind of stuff? it's always interesting for me to read that kind of "insider info"... haha... ;) just one point: what kind of vendor should be able to shift 1000x+ orders/ month? second point: so, you say that they have a worldwide network, where they can compare fingerprints now... do you think, that they will also take fingerprints (from a "crime scene") from envelopes or parcels with drugs, when they get seized? ::)
Yes, LEO looks for fingerprints and DNA when they seize packages. I also wouldn't put it past them to order from a vendor just so they can try to identify the vendor using fingerprints/DNA.
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what do you think the chances of getting 250 valiums from india to an address with the first name changed from robert to thomas, but the last name staying the same, is?
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so, that i get it right - e.g. if they are busting a drug dealer (doesn't matter on they street or at home,...) the first thing they will do is automatically comparing fingerprints from him with the database they have? man, this really sound horrible in my ears... :o
...or maybe they just take from bigger seizures fingerprints, because at it's too expensive for the small type one? i can't believe it... they are getting better and better, but i think it all depends on the money they get from the big pot?! ::)
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so, that i get it right - e.g. if they are busting a drug dealer (doesn't matter on they street or at home,...) the first thing they will do is automatically comparing fingerprints from him with the database they have? man, this really sound horrible in my ears... :o
...or maybe they just take from bigger seizures fingerprints, because at it's too expensive for the small type one? i can't believe it... they are getting better and better, but i think it all depends on the money they get from the big pot?! ::)
Maybe they will, and maybe they won't. The point is, they can, and you'd be a moron to ignore that fact.
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@pine - yeah, nice little essay here! you know a lot of that kind of stuff? it's always interesting for me to read that kind of "insider info"... haha... ;) just one point: what kind of vendor should be able to shift 1000x+ orders/ month? second point: so, you say that they have a worldwide network, where they can compare fingerprints now... do you think, that they will also take fingerprints (from a "crime scene") from envelopes or parcels with drugs, when they get seized? ::)
Your typical vendor is certainly not shifting 1000 orders, but the top ones are. I think the main bottleneck in the Silk Road is a reliable consistent supply, because you can just see from vendors talking that they are running out of product within weeks, even days. Throughput could be a lot higher than it is today. The people who get the most reliable source of product will eventually dominate their niche in the markets because they'll be able to undercut the competition with both quality assurance & price. Consistency itself is a great business plan.
It's like how there are two stock markets, a primary and a secondary market. The primary market is made out of investment bankers creating securities to sell to investors, usually institutions or even other bankers. Primary market is the only reason companies go public, to get money. The secondary market is made of regular investors and institutions who trade the ownership between each other.
The majority of activity on SR is in the secondary market, with drug dealers selling to clients on here in addition to their regular activity (most likely enthused by the fact some overseas markets, or even some domestic markets have literally huge geographical arbitrage opportunities). However geographical arbitrage is transient and in the long term the real profit is going to be in the primary market, connecting the growers and manufacturers to the buyers directly without going through the traditional hierarchical drug distribution process. That's what I meant by a vertically integrated business strategy. The profit opportunity is huge, two orders of magnitude. Invest a dollar, get 100 dollars. Combined with rapid turnover, you can grow big, fast.
We had a postal worker interviewed on here last year, and she described what happens to postal packages very nicely. I forget the details, but search for janereno and you'll find it. The gist is that photos and fingerprints are definitely taken of contraband + packages. Postal Inspectors aren't slackers.
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@pine - yeah, nice little essay here! you know a lot of that kind of stuff? it's always interesting for me to read that kind of "insider info"... haha... ;) just one point: what kind of vendor should be able to shift 1000x+ orders/ month? second point: so, you say that they have a worldwide network, where they can compare fingerprints now... do you think, that they will also take fingerprints (from a "crime scene") from envelopes or parcels with drugs, when they get seized? ::)
Your typical vendor is certainly not shifting 1000 orders, but the top ones are. I think the main bottleneck in the Silk Road is a reliable consistent supply, because you can just see from vendors talking that they are running out of product within weeks, even days. Throughput could be a lot higher than it is today. The people who get the most reliable source of product will eventually dominate their niche in the markets because they'll be able to undercut the competition with both quality assurance & price. Consistency itself is a great business plan.
The reason a lot of vendors can't constantly stock product is the delay of getting paid, not usually supply issues.
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@pine - yeah, nice little essay here! you know a lot of that kind of stuff? it's always interesting for me to read that kind of "insider info"... haha... ;) just one point: what kind of vendor should be able to shift 1000x+ orders/ month? second point: so, you say that they have a worldwide network, where they can compare fingerprints now... do you think, that they will also take fingerprints (from a "crime scene") from envelopes or parcels with drugs, when they get seized? ::)
Your typical vendor is certainly not shifting 1000 orders, but the top ones are. I think the main bottleneck in the Silk Road is a reliable consistent supply, because you can just see from vendors talking that they are running out of product within weeks, even days. Throughput could be a lot higher than it is today. The people who get the most reliable source of product will eventually dominate their niche in the markets because they'll be able to undercut the competition with both quality assurance & price. Consistency itself is a great business plan.
The reason a lot of vendors can't constantly stock product is the delay of getting paid, not usually supply issues.
If people on the secondary market aren't getting paid soon enough and can't purchase more product as a result, then their real problem is their capital. i.e. they don't have any, or aren't putting it at risk.
In any case, whether it's lack of capital or not, it leads to exactly the same result, inconsistent supply.
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If you're shipping below the felony amount (usually ~ 20-30g depending on your state), then anybody who gets a controlled delivery can at most expect a misdemeanor charge which at the most will translate to a couple of days in lock-up or a fine.
In the U.S.? I thought it was a felony on the federal level to possess a schedule 1 substance. It is a felony in the couple states I have looked at. I am having a difficult time finding the federal penalties, if there is any kind of outline.
Will you usually be tried according to your state laws if you have something get intercepted? The actual interception would most likely occur out of state.
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If you're shipping below the felony amount (usually ~ 20-30g depending on your state), then anybody who gets a controlled delivery can at most expect a misdemeanor charge which at the most will translate to a couple of days in lock-up or a fine.
In the U.S.? I thought it was a felony on the federal level to possess a schedule 1 substance. It is a felony in the couple states I have looked at. I am having a difficult time finding the federal penalties, if there is any kind of outline.
Will you usually be tried according to your state laws if you have something get intercepted? The actual interception would most likely occur out of state.
I'm massively generalizing here, the law is extremely complicated in theory and even more so in practice. What the law says, and then what normally happens are usually two different things (unless you've no $$$ and you look/sound like the wrong kind of character e.g. looking like some black dude from MTV). What a misdemeanor and what a felony equate to is almost completely random from state to state, I shouldn't even have posted those 20g - 30g numbers, they are more misleading than helpful. So; please ignore that comment.
At the end of the day, the only key thing that remains constant is STFU. If you try to help yourself by explaining things, you'll get raped. If you talk like a bird and you have no money for a good lawyer, then you are at the mercy of some pretty draconian laws that wouldn't have seemed out of place in the dark ages.
Example: If you get caught with *any* amount of heroin, you had better hope that Federal law is being applied rather than state law, it's the difference between going inside for 1 year + $5000 fine vs up to 7 years and $50,000 fine. In some states, you have 'possession of drug paraphernalia' charges e.g. a bong, which can get you a fine of several thousand dollars. They merely need to suspect you intended to use it to smoke a scheduled substance. I kid you not.
Then there are more liberal states like Massachusetts in which as long as you've < 1 ounce of marijuana you get a $100 fine at the most. Quite a spectrum there, ha ha!
P.S. I am by no means a legal expert, you guys need to do your own research on the laws for your DOC and State, there are really too many variables to adequately generalize. Also, if you live nearby a day care center or a public school, you should never order to your address period. Otherwise you might get 'an upgrade'. Knowing characters like moonbear, he would be selling to his pals at school to earn street cred. What he doesn't realize is that he could get life imprisonment for that. I wouldn't even wish that even on moonbear!
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Yeah, I definitely see the difference between states. California is a classic example. I just don't know exactly what the difference is between the law and what actually happens in most places. You see the occasional horror story about some guy getting 30 years for a couple grams of something, but who knows what is typical.
Thanks for the heads up about schools and daycare centers. There are so many things to be paranoid about. :P