Silk Road forums
Discussion => Off topic => Topic started by: grahamgreene on February 14, 2012, 06:23 am
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The following are not my own words; they're taken verbum pro verbo from a respected member of a Bitcoin forum who makes excellent predictions (and likely a shedload of money from his pattern-recognition savvy! 8))
They're posted for everybody, but particularly for people who may not use other Bitcoin forums to keep up to date on the Bitcoin market and Bitcoin news.
"Interestingly enough, if you compare the magnitudes of each rally and assume that they will drop as much as the first rally as a magnitude of the percentage, you get a "perfect" estimate of a 33% drop from our high of $7.22, bringing us down to $4.81.
...God damn 33% percent retracement rule."
Context: This was posted on February 6th, after some market turmoil. The price currently (07.36 GMT) is sitting at a high of $5.55 and a low of $4.81. At the moment, a very accurate prediction!
So let's continue business as usual and pray to Jah, God, Allah, The Flying Spaghetti Monster, Trees, The Sea, Mother Earth, Satoshi and the great Dread Pirate Roberts that he's right about a $4.81 stabilisation! ;)
- grahamgreene
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So now 4.81 is gonna be the 'normal' price? It's not gonna go back to like 7? I have 25 BTC I paid like 6-6.40 each for... :(
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The market will decide the worth of bitcoin.
I'm not too worried about it. I mine for coins.
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The market will decide the worth of bitcoin.
I'm not too worried about it. I mine for coins.
What kinda rig you got there?
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The market will decide the worth of bitcoin.
I'm not too worried about it. I mine for coins.
What kinda rig you got there?
I have 3 computers mining, only 1 is mine but I keep all the coins.
I have 2x 6970s in my rig and 1 6870 in the other 2 computers.
I don't make a lot but it is more than I need.
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The market will decide the worth of bitcoin.
I'm not too worried about it. I mine for coins.
What kinda rig you got there?
I have 3 computers mining, only 1 is mine but I keep all the coins.
I have 2x 6970s in my rig and 1 6870 in the other 2 computers.
I don't make a lot but it is more than I need.
Just out of curiosity, how much do you make, and how often, if you don't mind me asking? If you do, I understand.
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I make around .9 bitcoins a day on average. (24hr period)
Like I said, it's not much... but it's completely anonymous and easier than dealing with mtgox, dwolla, etc.
Bitcoin mining isn't a profitable venture, IMO.
It's kind of addictive though. Squeezing every last MH/s out of your rigs is kind of fun.
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So now 4.81 is gonna be the 'normal' price? It's not gonna go back to like 7? I have 25 BTC I paid like 6-6.40 each for... :(
Not necessarily, and as is evident by the current price his prediction about the 33% retracement rule wasn't entirely accurate - although we don't know yet whether the value will rise back up to the $6+ price range anytime soon, Bitcoin value is still fluctuating a lot more than during 'stable' periods but barring any more exchange closures or massive moves by the (now 2) current manipulators it's entirely possible that it will hold relatively steady in or around the $4.00 - $4.45 price range for the next couple of days. I also can't imagine more panic-selling / panic-buying (the lack of which would keep prices relatively stable) until prices drop down close to $3.20 because the new psychological barrier seems to be set at the $3 mark.
All this being said, I'm no expert and am basing my deductions on the opinions of people who seem to have a decent track record in Bitcoin speculation. Personally, I have great faith in Bitcoin as a future currency, and have no doubt that the prices will soar in the future - perhaps even by the end of the year. I'll be buying as much as possible at current prices as an investment, and will be buying as needed to fund my purchases on here.
As for worrying about your 25 BTC at $6 - 6.40 a piece, in a couple years those 25 BTC might be able to buy you a house! :P I bought a large amount when prices were at $3.32 and almost doubled the amount of USD value that I had in my account over a period of 2 weeks, so the volatility of the market worked well for me in that case; my advice to anyone worrying about their current coin value is to read up as much as possible about the state of the markets / recent Bitcoin news etc. over at bitcointalk.org on the clearweb and always plan for the worst case scenario. Expect the worst and anything else is automatically good news!
- grahamgreene
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ok were at 4.2 right now soo that 4.3 wasnt the lowest, i just bought $300usd, hoping for a turn around!!
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Please don't waste your time trying to predict currency movements. It is a giant waste of your energies.
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not wasing time, just checking up on it now and then
looks like its leveled out, needa make some moola and get some goodies 8)
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ok were at 4.2 right now soo that 4.3 wasnt the lowest, i just bought $300usd, hoping for a turn around!!
Investing in Bitcoin to sell for profit is always going to be a risky venture due to the volatility of the market. I made a huge amount over the course of 2 weeks, but could've lost an equally huge amount over the course of 3 days due to the price dropping. That's the thing about Bitcoin - when it crashes, it crashes big! And recovery generally takes a period of up to 9 weeks.
Market manipulators are the ones to watch out for, and ironically, they're the ones you CAN'T watch out for - they dump a huge amount of coins onto the market at once to try push the price lower, then buy up more at the lower prices. The first time this happened there was a relatively small amount of coins dumped onto the market and things went crazy - the last time there was over a 100K BTC dumped and there was very little market movement, which would indicate speculators are becoming much less affected by huge dumps like this, and Bitcoin is stabilising somewhat as a commodity (most speculators would see Bitcoin as a commodity to make money off rather than as a currency to purchase goods and services with, at least in the short term.)
The 100K BTC dropped by the manipulator which failed to impact the market then brought a second, larger manipulator out of the shadows who managed to successfully push the price down, and buying up more coins. I can't see this happening again for another 2 - 3 months as the manipulators will likely be attempting to examine each others most probable strategies, now that the smaller manipulator knows there is someone larger out there.
Please don't waste your time trying to predict currency movements. It is a giant waste of your energies.
Predicting currency movements is not necessarily a waste of your energies, although for those not well versed in it, it can lose you a lot of money.
Predicting commodity movements, however, is much less of a mug's game. Bitcoins are, for the most part (to speculators) a commodity which is traded or hoarded in order to produce a profit at the sale-point. The relatively successful Bitcoin currency trader needs to be completely up to date with the speculation of Bitcoin as a commodity in order to maintain that success.
- graham greene