Quote from: TheBusiness on September 12, 2012, 09:17 amThere will always be chaos in any sufficiently complex system. That's a given but no reason to assume you can't use some kind of predictive strategy. I can't agree, if you read Thorie de la Spculation you'll understand why. There *are* reasons predicative strategies have a weird habit of suddenly collapsing and this is very consistent.Pretty much the first whitepaper on Finance ever, namely the Theory of Speculation paper published in 1900 by Louis Bachelier explains why this is so. The guy who wrote it discovered the underlying principal of Brownian Motion *five years* before Einstein and still wrote a better paper on it. This is a guy to be taken seriously. If you boil it right down to one sentence, he is saying that markets basically follow a random walk. The question you should be asking yourself, is why do they do that? And what is randomness in this context anyway?