The guy who said Bitcoin was the Devil's way of teaching geeks Economics.Well, he was right... :DI say this carefully, so read in the same manner.*Any* possible profit producing regularities or patterns in the Bitcoin network are not going to last for long, that's if they exist at all even now, which I seriously doubt. There is no free money here.Finally, if you are interested in why this is the general rule, you need to study markets and efficiency. Basically, the market is self-aware. A price is a number which factors in the collective consensus or average on the future. Thus all future predictions by market participant are part of the price, which ultimately means you have to be smarter than nearly everybody in the entire economy of Bitcoin if you are to extract trades that produce profit in a fashion independent from random chance (remember, a rising tide lifts all boats...). Not only that, but you have to do this consistently.Currency markets are even more efficient than stock markets. In stock markets it's easier to come up with reasonable notions of why certain stocks will outperform market averages. But if you're speculating on an entire currency, then you're indirectly betting on *all* the things done or not done with that currency. There's levels of unpredictability, and this is in the stratosphere. Bitcoin is an unusual case, because the supply side is completely understood, with possibly bitcoin loss being the only uncertain factor I can see, but that will be quickly worked out and capitalized on, people screwing up their transactions will follow a normal distribution so this is easy to obtain a stable average. There are X Bitcoins and they will exist in X time periods. This information is, by default, factored into B$ prices. So you are betting specifically on the demand for Bitcoins, having knowledge about the market for them that others do not. Good luck with that.Paradoxically, if everybody stops trying to eke out profit from this system, everything I just said becomes junk. In a sense, it is a circular argument or self fulfilling prophesy. Even more funny, everything I have said, although we know it to be true, can never be proven to be true, ever. And if you think you understand market efficiency or that you are certain that it is wrong, then you don't even grasp the concept. It's a philosophical mindfuck of the highest order with serious real world implications in science, along with Godel's Incompleteness Theorem to which it is no doubt related.tldr; Price and value are very much correlated. This has implications for you. Like if you see a 100 dollar bill on the floor of a public space, it could be 100, or it could be a 100 superglued to the pavement and there's a bunch of kids laughing at you taking photos of your hilarious failed attempts to pick it up.