Silk Road forums
Discussion => Newbie discussion => Topic started by: Burning Babylon on June 11, 2013, 05:29 pm
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According to the Seller's Guide ( http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/wiki/index.php?title=Seller%27s_Guide ) the value of Bitcoin on Silk Road is stated by http://www.mtgoxlive.com/ - presumably by the Weighted Average as discussed in for example http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=12685.msg123911
Now I would assume this makes it somewhat easy to reliably calculate prices for USD, but is there any way to show this exact price in any other currency? So far I've mostly used this method in combination with http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/ for converting into the currency SEK but recently after seeing https://blockchain.info/wallet/price-of-one-bitcoin and seeing how it doesn't line up with MtGoxLive I'm starting to question how accurate this method really is - XE could potentially be lagging behind at the time of the Bitcoin price.
So my question is what method is the most accurate for finding out the exact value of Bitcoin on Silkroad for any currency other than the dollar at any specific time?
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This site calculates exchange for lots o different currencies....
http://bitcoinexchangerate.org/
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Hmm this actually looks exactly like what I was looking for, it matches up with the exact same data as on http://www.mtgoxlive.com/ :)
I'll be using this to anchor my products prices to the same data Silk Road uses so I won't have to worry about the numbers again. 8)
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I noticed just now the numbers still do not match up entirely as the value strays slightly each day compared to the MtGoxLive and bitcoinexchangerate.org Weighted Average data. Is Silk Road basing its data through some other process or are they synching at different speeds? If I anchor a price to a fixed amount and it's invalid after just one day as now my plan to do this for all products at a later date doesn't look promising. :(
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To simplify my explanation as I really need an answer to this: If I put up a listing with a specific Bitcoin value which is pegged to a value on http://bitcoinexchangerate.org it will be true in that instant (obviously). However if the value of Bitcoin goes up or down even slightly the value becomes invalid when Silk Road updates its price as Silk Road does not currently synch to the same data used by bitcoinexchangerate. The site bitcoinexchangerate uses the same information as MtGoxLive, and MtGoxLive supposedly has the most accurate information according to Silk Road: http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/wiki/index.php?title=Seller%27s_Guide#Escrow_Hedging
If you need the most up-to-date USD/BTC exchange rate, we recommend mtgoxlive.com
I could see why no one has bothered with this question before as the synch is somewhat accurate, but all vendors currently stating they have pegged a product to a specific price are technically currently lying unless they've used some other site which has a perfect synch I'm not aware of yet.
Edit 2013-06-15: By chance I found a post by Libertas which explains the system a bit more in detail: http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=171221.msg1225291#msg1225291 - however this also makes it clear it's very hard to find the exact value without access to a site which translates exactly those values at any given time.
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Most unstable currency I ever worked with !!!
fallen 25 € in the last 2 weeks 8)
gotta act quick so u dont loose to much value when u buy.
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To simplify my explanation as I really need an answer to this: If I put up a listing with a specific Bitcoin value which is pegged to a value on http://bitcoinexchangerate.org it will be true in that instant (obviously). However if the value of Bitcoin goes up or down even slightly the value becomes invalid when Silk Road updates its price as Silk Road does not currently synch to the same data used by bitcoinexchangerate. The site bitcoinexchangerate uses the same information as MtGoxLive, and MtGoxLive supposedly has the most accurate information according to Silk Road: http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/wiki/index.php?title=Seller%27s_Guide#Escrow_Hedging
If you need the most up-to-date USD/BTC exchange rate, we recommend mtgoxlive.com
I could see why no one has bothered with this question before as the synch is somewhat accurate, but all vendors currently stating they have pegged a product to a specific price are technically currently lying unless they've used some other site which has a perfect synch I'm not aware of yet.
Edit 2013-06-15: By chance I found a post by Libertas which explains the system a bit more in detail: http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=171221.msg1225291#msg1225291 - however this also makes it clear it's very hard to find the exact value without access to a site which translates exactly those values at any given time.
I thought the point was you tied it to a dollar value and didn't jump up and down around that value, after all BTC is an imperfect system so we have to do the best with what we've got? Don't get me wrong I'm looking forwards to making money using it, just it's not the perfect medium. So long as a vendor tied to USD value and buyers have prices displayed in USD it remains constant?
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To simplify my explanation as I really need an answer to this: If I put up a listing with a specific Bitcoin value which is pegged to a value on http://bitcoinexchangerate.org it will be true in that instant (obviously). However if the value of Bitcoin goes up or down even slightly the value becomes invalid when Silk Road updates its price as Silk Road does not currently synch to the same data used by bitcoinexchangerate. The site bitcoinexchangerate uses the same information as MtGoxLive, and MtGoxLive supposedly has the most accurate information according to Silk Road: http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/wiki/index.php?title=Seller%27s_Guide#Escrow_Hedging
If you need the most up-to-date USD/BTC exchange rate, we recommend mtgoxlive.com
I could see why no one has bothered with this question before as the synch is somewhat accurate, but all vendors currently stating they have pegged a product to a specific price are technically currently lying unless they've used some other site which has a perfect synch I'm not aware of yet.
Edit 2013-06-15: By chance I found a post by Libertas which explains the system a bit more in detail: http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=171221.msg1225291#msg1225291 - however this also makes it clear it's very hard to find the exact value without access to a site which translates exactly those values at any given time.
Have a read through the post at the link below - it might give you a few ideas:
http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=138695.0
Libertas
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To be sure I'm finding a so accurate number as possible I'm creating four Custom Offers ( 1, 1.25, 1.29, 1.33 ) as private listings just for the purpose of finding the correct info. These four listings were created as close to 18:00 CEST as possible along with the information from http://bitcoinexchangerate.org for Dollars and SEK updated a few seconds after putting it up:
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/4acc48658c / 1.0 BTC = $102.71009 USD / 1.0 BTC = 664.73191 SEK
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/df500c6b9f / 1.25 BTC = $128.38761 USD / 1.25 BTC = 830.91486 SEK
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/09821d6ef5 / 1.29 BTC = $132.49601 USD / 1.29 BTC = 857.50411 SEK
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/6085d0b217 / 1.33 BTC = $136.60442 USD / 1.33 BTC = 884.09343 SEK
Chart Type: Median Price
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10zigHourlyztgMza1gWMAzm1g12zm2g90 - 10 day / 1 hour = Median Price: 101.9 / WMA: 101.5
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zigHourlyztgMza1gWMAzm1g24zm2g90 - 5 day / 1 hour = Median Price: 109.9 / WMA: 100.7
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zig15-minztgMza1gWMAzm1g96zm2g90 - 1 day / 15 minutes = Median Price: 102.5 / WMA: 100.7
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zigDailyztgMza1gWMAzm1g96zm2g90 - 1 day / Daily = Median Price: 100.6 / WMA: 118.4
Chart Type: CandleStick
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10zigHourlyztgSza1gWMAzm1g12zm2g90 - 10 day / 1 hour = Op: 101.5 / Hi: 102.6 / Lo: 101.3 / Cl: 102.4 / WMA: 101.4
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zigHourlyztgSza1gWMAzm1g24zm2g90 - 5 day / 1 hour = Op: 101.5 / Hi: 102.6 / Lo: 101.3 / Cl: 102.4 / WMA: 100.7
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zig15-minztgSza1gWMAzm1g96zm2g90 - 1 day / 15 minutes = Op: 102.4 / Hi: 102.6 / Lo: 102.4 / Cl: 102.4 / WMA: 100.7
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zigDailyztgSza1gWMAzm1g96zm2g90 - 1 day / Daily = Op: 100 / Hi: 103.7 / Lo: 97.5 / Cl: 102.4 / WMA: 118.4
I will return to this thread at a later date when Bitcoin has moved a bit in value and post the same values again which should give an indicator which way is the most accurate way of measuring it. :)
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Returning to this thread as the value has shifted enough to do another analysis. I have a summary at the very bottom for anyone interested. 8)
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/4acc48658c / 1.0 BTC = $102.71009 USD / 1.0 BTC = 664.73191 SEK
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/df500c6b9f / 1.25 BTC = $128.38761 USD / 1.25 BTC = 830.91486 SEK
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/09821d6ef5 / 1.29 BTC = $132.49601 USD / 1.29 BTC = 857.50411 SEK
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/6085d0b217 / 1.33 BTC = $136.60442 USD / 1.33 BTC = 884.09343 SEK
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/4acc48658c / 0.92 BTC = $101.22501 USD / 665.04837 SEK
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/df500c6b9f / 1.15 BTC = $126.53127 USD / 831.31050 SEK
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/09821d6ef5 / 1.18 BTC = $129.83208 USD / 852.99682 SEK
http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/6085d0b217 / 1.22 BTC = $134.23317 USD / 881.91199 SEK
Chart Type: Median Price ( Original: http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=171142.msg1240633#msg1240633 )
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10zigHourlyztgMza1gWMAzm1g12zm2g90 - 10 day / 1 hour = Median Price: 101.9 / WMA: 101.5
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zigHourlyztgMza1gWMAzm1g24zm2g90 - 5 day / 1 hour = Median Price: 109.9 / WMA: 100.7
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zig15-minztgMza1gWMAzm1g96zm2g90 - 1 day / 15 minutes = Median Price: 102.5 / WMA: 100.7
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zigDailyztgMza1gWMAzm1g96zm2g90 - 1 day / Daily = Median Price: 100.6 / WMA: 118.4
Chart Type: Median Price (New)
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10zigHourlyztgMza1gWMAzm1g12zm2g90 - 10 day / 1 hour = Median Price: 110.5 / WMA: 110.0
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zigHourlyztgMza1gWMAzm1g24zm2g90 - 5 day / 1 hour = Median Price: 110.5 / WMA: 109.1
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zig15-minztgMza1gWMAzm1g96zm2g90 - 1 day / 15 minutes = Median Price: 110.5 / WMA: 109.1
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zigDailyztgMza1gWMAzm1g96zm2g90 - 1 day / Daily = Median Price: 110 / WMA: 117.6
Chart Type: CandleStick ( Original: http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=171142.msg1240633#msg1240633 )
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10zigHourlyztgSza1gWMAzm1g12zm2g90 - 10 day / 1 hour = Op: 101.5 / Hi: 102.6 / Lo: 101.3 / Cl: 102.4 / WMA: 101.4
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zigHourlyztgSza1gWMAzm1g24zm2g90 - 5 day / 1 hour = Op: 101.5 / Hi: 102.6 / Lo: 101.3 / Cl: 102.4 / WMA: 100.7
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zig15-minztgSza1gWMAzm1g96zm2g90 - 1 day / 15 minutes = Op: 102.4 / Hi: 102.6 / Lo: 102.4 / Cl: 102.4 / WMA: 100.7
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zigDailyztgSza1gWMAzm1g96zm2g90 - 1 day / Daily = Op: 100 / Hi: 103.7 / Lo: 97.5 / Cl: 102.4 / WMA: 118.4
Chart Type: CandleStick (New)
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg10zigHourlyztgSza1gWMAzm1g12zm2g90 - 10 day / 1 hour = Op: 110.4 / Hi: 110.9 / Lo: 110.0 / Cl: 110.4 / WMA: 110.0
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg5zigHourlyztgSza1gWMAzm1g24zm2g90 - 5 day / 1 hour = Op: 110.4 / Hi: 110.9 / Lo: 110.0 / Cl: 110.4 / WMA: 109.2
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zig15-minztgSza1gWMAzm1g96zm2g90 - 1 day / 15 minutes = Op: 110.4 / Hi: 110.9 / Lo: 110 / Cl: 110.4 / WMA: 109.1
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zigDailyztgSza1gWMAzm1g96zm2g90 - 1 day / Daily = Op: 108.3 / Hi: 112.8 / Lo: 107.1 / Cl: 110.4 / WMA: 117.7
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As one can see from the custom listings at the start the value has fallen 8.0%, 8.0%, 8.5% and 8.2% respectively. One can gather the discrepancies with the last two listings is because Silk Road only displays two decimals, so I will only calculate on the first two for the sake of simplicity.
$102.71009 USD / 1.0 BTC = 664.73191 SEK versus $101.22501 USD / 665.04837 SEK = 1.446 % decrease / 0.048 % increase
$128.38761 USD / 1.25 BTC = 830.91486 SEK versus $126.53127 USD / 831.31050 SEK = 1.446 % decrease / 0.048 % increase
This basically means using http://bitcoinexchangerate.org will show the USD value of a Silk Road listing incorrectly by 1.446 %, and the SEK value incorrectly by 0.048 % - they simply don't synch with the same data. I'm not entirely sure how the mechanics work here with one currency deviating by more than one percent from another though. :o
10 day / 1 hour = Median Price: 101.9 / WMA: 101.5 versus 10 day / 1 hour = Median Price: 110.5 / WMA: 110.0 | Median Price: 8.44 % increase / WMA: 8.374 % increase
5 day / 1 hour = Median Price: 109.9 / WMA: 100.7 versus 5 day / 1 hour = Median Price: 110.5 / WMA: 109.1 | Median Price: 0.546 % increase / WMA: 8.342 % increase
1 day / 15 minutes = Median Price: 102.5 / WMA: 100.7 versus 1 day / 15 minutes = Median Price: 110.5 / WMA: 109.1 | Median Price: 7.805 % increase / 8.342 % increase
1 day / Daily = Median Price: 100.6 / WMA: 118.4 versus 1 day / Daily = Median Price: 110.0 / WMA: 117.6 | Median Price: 9.344 % increase / 0.676 % decrease
Here one can conclude that by using the Chart Type: Median Price the most accurate listing is 1 day / 15 minutes, only deviating by 0,195 % and 0,342 % respectively. If one adds up 7.805 with 8.342 and divide that by two one ends up with the number 8,0735, a very accurate number to the 8 % value change.
10 day / 1 hour = Op: 101.5 / Hi: 102.6 / Lo: 101.3 / Cl: 102.4 / WMA: 101.4 versus 10 day / 1 hour = Op: 110.4 / Hi: 110.9 / Lo: 110.0 / Cl: 110.4 / WMA: 110.0 | Op: 8.768 % increase / Hi: 8.09 % increase / Lo: 8.588 % increase / Cl: 7.813 % increase / WMA: 8.481 % increase
5 day / 1 hour = Op: 101.5 / Hi: 102.6 / Lo: 101.3 / Cl: 102.4 / WMA: 100.7 versus 5 day / 1 hour = Op: 110.4 / Hi: 110.9 / Lo: 110.0 / Cl: 110.4 / WMA: 109.2 | Op: 8.768 % increase / Hi: 8.09 % increase / Lo: 8.588 % increase / Cl: 7.813 % increase / WMA: 8.441 % increase
1 day / 15 minutes = Op: 102.4 / Hi: 102.6 / Lo: 102.4 / Cl: 102.4 / WMA: 100.7 versus 1 day / 15 minutes = Op: 110.4 / Hi: 110.9 / Lo: 110.0 / Cl: 110.4 / WMA: 109.1 | Op: 7.813 % increase / Hi: 8.09 % increase / Lo: 7.422 % increase / Cl: 7.813 % increase / WMA: 8.342 % increase
1 day / Daily = Op: 100.0 / Hi: 103.7 / Lo: 97.5 / Cl: 102.4 / WMA: 118.4 versus 1 day / Daily = Op: 108.3 / Hi: 112.8 / Lo: 107.1 / Cl: 110.4 / WMA: 117.7 | Op: 8.3 % increase / Hi: 8.775 % increase / Lo: 9.846 % increase / Cl: 7.813 % increase / WMA: 0.591 % decrease
Once again one can see the 1 day / 15 minutes is the most accurate overall. When adding the five together and dividing ( 7.813 + 8.09 + 7.422 + 7.813 + 8.342 / 5 = 7,896 ) one gets very close to 8 % once again.
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To summarize for anyone who didn't want to read or couldn't follow what I was writing, the most accurate method to be able to track a value on Silk Road is to use the following two links:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zig15-minztgMza1gWMAzm1g96zm2g90 ( Chart Type: Median Price - 1 day / 15 minutes )
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zig15-minztgSza1gWMAzm1g96zm2g90 ( Chart Type: CandleStick - 1 day / 15 minutes )
Add the values of Median Price and WMA together on the first link, then divide by 2.
Add the values of Op, Hi, Lo, Cl and WMP together on the second link, then divide by 5.
This is probably as close as me or anyone else is going to get as the fact that Silk Road only uses two decimals on the BTC value restricts calculations by quite a bit, but ah well. :)
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Coming back to this thread for four reasons:
1) The thread New currencies: http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=178647.0
2) The thread Stop setting the BTC value by MT.Gox: http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=177489.msg1277486
3) The fact Bitcoin has gone haywire the last few days or so.
4) My Exact Value Indicators are not correct and I'm not entirely sure why.
Now first a quote from the first point:
UPDATE (07/02/2013 1700 UTC): Forgot to mention another change that's coming with this update. Now that MtGox is losing market share, we'll be pulling from multiple markets to get the "official" exchange rate for pricing and hedging. It will also be more closely weighted to the preset instead of equally weighting all prices over the past 24-hours. This part is a bit of an experiment and we may revert back if there are any problems with it.
So any currency in the profile under "display prices in:" will show the exact value for that currency for Bitcoin on Silk Road.
I've been gone a few days and I might have missed any potential discussion on hedged/unhedged transactions under that time but as far as I can tell the mechanics of having a hedged escrow versus an exposed escrow has been severely altered by this? Previously one would hedge against roughly a 24 hour window as roughly explained in my previous posts but with this new system where the value can be changed very quickly it seems unhedged transactions are immensely more riskful in comparison to before. I would personally think it would be fair if the hedging options had a slightly lower percentage fee to match the new increased volatility.
For another semi-strange matter, I posted this previously in this thread: http://dkn255hz262ypmii.onion/index.php?topic=171142.msg1240633#msg1240633
It details how I created four Exact Value Indicators for four types of values, namely: 1.0 BTC, 1.25 BTC, 1.29 BTC and 1.33 BTC.
Silk Road currently values one Bitcoin at "฿1 = $69.08", however my four Exact Value Indicators are as follows as I'm writing this:
Exact Value Indicator - 1.0: http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/4acc48658c | $100.54
Exact Value Indicator - 1.25: http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/df500c6b9f | $125.68
Exact Value Indicator - 1.29: http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/09821d6ef5 | $129.70
Exact Value Indicator - 1.33: http://silkroadvb5piz3r.onion/silkroad/item/6085d0b217 | $133.72
As one can see they haven't followed the value all that well from my posting date of 2013-06-15, the most likely case is they somehow got bugged to 100$ as a starting point as all my other listings are OK. ???
This thread might be obsolete from now on but if someone could point me to the best threads for the most up to date discussions on this matter at the moment I would be grateful. :)