Silk Road forums
Discussion => Newbie discussion => Topic started by: CannabisCrew on April 04, 2013, 06:19 pm
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People are losing faith in traditional banking systems. Look at Cyprus and what's going on around the world. Please share you opinions on you best estimate for Bitcoin prices relative to the US Dollar by year's end.
This is all opinion folks! Spark one up and lets have sensible debate on where we believe this currency is going!
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Come on folks. Share your predictions with the rest of us. I know you have em! ;)
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idk but the fact that the price has increased like 6x since i joined has me a little worried
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i believe the prices will significantly drop by mid summer 2013. and start to stable out around $100usd
Things you have to remember..
1.)ASIC mining machines are getting cheaper same with FPGA
2.)Like all currencies when you have a massive influx of volume the value will always decrease
3.)There is a time When All the blocks will be mined forcing the price to level out (or skyrocket if everyone hoards)
4.)The people sitting on huge stacks of BTC will eventually BUY OUT and more then likely at the same time causing a marketwide panic essentially collapsing the market completely
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i believe the prices will significantly drop by mid summer 2013. and start to stable out around $100usd
Things you have to remember..
1.)ASIC mining machines are getting cheaper same with FPGA
2.)Like all currencies when you have a massive influx of volume the value will always decrease
3.)There is a time When All the blocks will be mined forcing the price to level out (or skyrocket if everyone hoards)
4.)The people sitting on huge stacks of BTC will eventually BUY OUT and more then likely at the same time causing a marketwide panic essentially collapsing the market completely
1. True, but the difficulty rate will go up and therefore make their purchase less sensible.
2. The value of bitcoins is based on fiduciary trust. I'm not sure I agree with the volume/value argument you present.
3. Yes, but that time will be around 2050 I believe. When all blocks have been mined at that time, I believe a new crypto-currency will have replaced bitcoins
4. I agree that many people are holding out for a big payday. But that doesn't mean they will all sell at the same time. Less some event that shakes people's trust in bitcoins I don't really see a collapse due to volume being sold. Right now there are more people buying than selling which is one reason why the price keeps going up!
Again, these are just my opinions but thank you for your input!
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<-------------White, Proud, and Loud!
Wake up White man, the jew media is a scam!
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that seems a little off topic
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<-------------White, Proud, and Loud!
Wake up White man, the jew media is a scam!
I hope that someday a black jewish reporter crosses paths with you and shuts you up! :)
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if i remember correctly, about two years ago coins were around 40$, then I recall a story of a guy who had just been massively generating them and hoarding them, when he cashed out it literally crashed the market, i remember buying coins at .89 cents a pop after that, i think a similar thing will happen again, there is a lot more attention to them now though, making them more expensive but at the same time diluting the illicit e-money market.
Dr K
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the reason i say the people hoarding the coins will sell at the same time is the sheer fact that theres an auto sell feature if the value drops to a certain point and the autosell feature kicks in on a massive group of investors it could very well bottom the market out. Not to say it wont be bought back up to a stable dollar value.I guess the same could be said for the auto buy feature as well. The market is young and we will just have to wait and see what it does.
On the lighter side of things BTC is worth a hell of a lot more then a usd not that i trust the us currency anyways whats our debt @now 20 trillion :)
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@DrKilo23: I thought the crash two years ago was due to some massive theft from a reputable exchange. Maybe it was Bitfloor that got hacked, I can't recall entirely. Security is always an issue when there's such a financial incentive for hackers to steal a crypto-currency such a Bitcoins.
@sh1nra: Yes, you're referring to limit orders and I do believe that a percentage of Bitcoin users keep their coins in their market accounts for this purpose. If the value suddenly starts to drop, they have set limits at where they will look to sell so as to limit their losses. On the other hand, there are surely just as many if not more people with buy orders on ready for when their value drops below a certain criteria.
From my point of view, it seems that since there's so much financial instability in global markets Bitcoins seem like a sure-fire way to go. There's no central authority to take away their money and unlike paper currencies, more of it cannot be printed, leading to inflation. There are a LOT of people who believe this is a bubble waiting to burst. On the other hand there are a lot of people putting their entire life savings into Bitcoins and betting on their success.
I believe that minus some sort of catastrophic event which shakes people's trust in Bitcoins their value will simply keep going up. As more media attention is drawn to the currency more and more people will want to get their hands on some. Merchants are starting to notice and I suspect many more will begin accepting Bitcoins instead of traditional currencies.
Thank you for your input! It's well received and appreciated!
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I don't know, I just wish I'd bought a shit ton of bitcoins back when I first joined the road and sat on 'em. I'd be motherfucking rich. But nooooo.... I gotta go spend all my bitcoins immediately on drugzes. When I think of what could have been... man.
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Its going to go up up up until governments try to stop it, then if they all do I have no idea, and if a few but not all do, it will skyrocket like the money rocketship it has been the past 2 weeks, except it will go even higher.
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I think btc prices will continue to rise, however I hope they fall temporarily for a few days so I can stock up :)
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If it was sitting at 500 at the end of the year, I wouldn't be shocked, but I'll bet there's a major correction sometime in the next few months (maybe still lots of rise before that), and then some flatter prices until people forget the uncertaintly again and a new bubble takes off.
Or it could be $27 tomorrow...
Or the Oligarchy could figure out how to shut it down and it will be a historical footnote...
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Bitcoin can be shut down about as much as torrents can, which is to say none. This will probably be the biggest thing since the internet.
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Thank you for your comments and input!!
Bitcoin can be shut down about as much as torrents can, which is to say none. This will probably be the biggest thing since the internet.
I keep hearing that and I do believe they can't be shutdown -less they somehow shutdown every single mining rig and all nodes on the P2P.
Has anyone watched that youtube video "Bitcoin - An Analysis" (01:02:36)? It is a little over an hour long but these economists go about saying how more people will lose coins to forgotten addresses (and never be able to recover them) and how those coins going out of circulation will essentially bring the currency down. Forgot when that's going to happen but it's some distance future modeling they projected.
It's a good one to watch, although pretty boring, so spark one up and listen to what they have to say. They believe improvements to the protocol will need to be made for Bitcoins to be sustained.
Anyone else watch and have feedback?
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Totally impossible to predict.
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Totally impossible to predict.
I think external forces impact the value. These being;
1. Global demand in a currency not controlled by centralized authorities.
2. Accessibility to the currency. Entrepreneurs are trying to capitalize in every way possible.
3. Media attention.
There are plenty more but I believe those are the ones currently impacting the price. I could be wrong and of course it's all just a matter of educated guesses. You are right, there's no possible way to accurately predict. The best way to hedge your bets however, is to remain informed and conscientious of the forces which may impact its value.
Another banking crisis = Bitcoin win
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I just heard a piece on NPR last night about BTC and they said a large amount of them belong to wealthy people who are only investing a small portion of their money on them since it's so risky.
They didn't mention SR though....I think a lot of BTC are tied up right here :)
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NEED CHANGE!
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I just heard a piece on NPR last night about BTC and they said a large amount of them belong to wealthy people who are only investing a small portion of their money on them since it's so risky.
They didn't mention SR though....I think a lot of BTC are tied up right here :)
Thanks for your comment brotha,
However, how can they possibly know that's its the wealthy holding onto a large amount of it? I've read stories where certain hedge funds with near impossibly high rates of return were suspected of being early adopters of Bitcoins and started cashing in bigtime. I can't say whether I believe that or not but I'm trying to figure out how the media could possibly know that the rich are holding onto a stockpile of Bitcoins.
The rich are already secretive enough with their investments and money to begin with. They don't want the IRS to see it or anyone else for that matter because of personal liability. If I were rich and told people about all the Bitcoins I had, I don't believe it's a far stretch to say they would have a target on their backs for kiddnapping/extorsion. They would have to imagine the possibility of someone holding them at gunpoint demanding they transfer funds to an address of their choice. I don't know if it's just me being paranoid from so many years of smoking but this is sort of how I think nowadays and I believe the rich who have more to lose would also think along these lines. They wouldn't want anyone to know about their Bitcoins so I question how accurate that theory is.
Just my $.02
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<-------------White, Proud, and Loud!
Wake up White man, the jew media is a scam!
As much as I am anti-zionist (for reasons that AREN'T racist), I do wish you'd fuck off.
It's not the Jews that are the problem, it's extremist elements of their race that are the problem.
Exactly like the way dumb Aryan cunts like you are making the white man look mean, dumb and ugly.
Given your attitude and turn of phrase, one would imagine that you are one ugly mother fucker....
I reckon it'd be close to impossible to pick your face out of a line-up of albino pug's arseholes.
I hope you get raped by a gay black jew.
Namaste.
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Exchange your bitcoins for REloadit packs with me.
Exchange your REloadit packs for bitcoins with me.
8) :D
CoinXchange
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Back on topic.... BTC will take a hit if a couple of big investors decide to cash in, then it's onward and upward... IMO , it'll blast through $500 in the next 60 days.
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I think it's going to rapidly increase like it has in the past month. But I also see it crashing sometime soon once investors decide they've made a decent amount of money. I don't see it staying anywhere near the several hundreds of dollars worth, especially considering that it has very little use other than investing (and SR). Probably will balance out at around $100 by the time the year is over.
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Back on topic.... BTC will take a hit if a couple of big investors decide to cash in, then it's onward and upward... IMO , it'll blast through $500 in the next 60 days.
Thanks for your input! May I ask how you came to this prediction?
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I base this prediction purely on supply and demand....
The good press this topic has had over the last few weeks will see the price of BTC continue it's upward trajectory.
We've all got used to the whole concept of BTC and it's easy to forget that we are actually witnessing the birth and baby steps of what seems to be a bullet proof, equitable and well thought out future currency. ... Talk to your average accountant or any old non silkroad user on the street and you will find that 99 percent of them don't know what you're talking about. The elements of organised crime that are already using btc are also "early adopters". Soon, everyone from your local bikie gang to your "mum and dad" investor will be researching the mighty bitcoin and this interest alone will help push up the price....
After these "investors" have done their homework and, like us, see very few flaws in the system, some of them will invest. Even if just a small portion of these people invest in BTC, it's still going to be a huge amount of investors compared to those that are already involved and the price of coins will soar.
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I think 2013 is too short a time frame to say it will go up. I "predict" that there will be a crash sometime this year - perhaps when a large investor decides to cash out and that causes a slight dip, triggering a panic in other investors to cash out before it drops more. I mean, some people have hundreds of thousands to millions tied up in BTC. They aren't going to pull out at the first sign of trouble, unless they fundamentally believe in the long term stability of the system.
I for one don't know enough about the technology to trust it. For one, the block-chain split bug that occured a week or so ago has me thinking that with enough people on board, there could become 2 bitcoin block chains which would dilute the value of both chains. Each side saying they are the "real" chain and then we have 2 digital currencies with different values.
In addition, if we break the heat/power wall in computer engineering and come up with some way to drastically increase computation power, that might all the sudden kill btc value as all the sudden miners will be mining at relatively brisk speeds until the exponential increase in difficulty causes the next power wall to get hit.
My real prediction is long term. There will always be black markets. If BTC holds up, it will be worth over $1k per BTC. That probably won't happen for another 5-50 years, though.
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I base this prediction purely on supply and demand....
The good press this topic has had over the last few weeks will see the price of BTC continue it's upward trajectory.
We've all got used to the whole concept of BTC and it's easy to forget that we are actually witnessing the birth and baby steps of what seems to be a bullet proof, equitable and well thought out future currency. ... Talk to your average accountant or any old non silkroad user on the street and you will find that 99 percent of them don't know what you're talking about. The elements of organised crime that are already using btc are also "early adopters". Soon, everyone from your local bikie gang to your "mum and dad" investor will be researching the mighty bitcoin and this interest alone will help push up the price....
After these "investors" have done their homework and, like us, see very few flaws in the system, some of them will invest. Even if just a small portion of these people invest in BTC, it's still going to be a huge amount of investors compared to those that are already involved and the price of coins will soar.
I agree with a lot of what you're saying here. I do think that a continued interest in the currency will drive up it's price. However there are limitations to Bitcoins that I just recently began researching.
Have you watched this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpvQmF2AgG8
They present a lot of interesting points regarding Bitcoins and its definitely worth a look.
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Apparently there is over 1Billion USD Dollars already invested and circulating within Bitcoins! What a landmark!!!
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The current bitcoin price seem inflated, to me. Lots of people are buying it up as a storage-of-wealth system like with gold and such hording will artificially inflate the price of the coins that remain in circulation. But should the hoarded coins be dumped back into the market the price will drop, and should a large amount of coins be dumped into the market all at once it may trigger other people to believe the "bubble has burst", wherein they will dump their own coins and cause that bubble to burst, wherein we will end up with bitcoins having much less value.
So personally, I expect the price to drop to around what it used to be before this mega-inflation(technically deflation) happened. But hey, I've been expecting that every single day for the last two weeks and it hasn't happened yet... Which is no reason to think it won't.
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Just like Gold, when the big players start profit taking, sell off their stash of coins, their should be a decrease in the value of a Bitcoin, but I wouldn't even begin to predict that this will bring prices back to $12 a coin. I would expect with the popularity of the Bitcoin rising that he value of the Bitcoin is naturally going to rise with it.
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Long Live the BTC!
Wouldn't surprise me if we're all using it for everything some time soon...
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Definitely will keep going up! :)
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Looks like the bubble has started to rupture. If it drops down to pennies, I hope to buy some.
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its more to do do with the MtGox trading engine lag at the moment I think that is making people panic. Lag is currently 3542.14s!!
apparently there might be a DoS in progress on them??
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Maybe the better poll would be to ask at what price do you think we'll hit the bottom wall? I don't believe Bitcoins are going out. There's too much media attention and it will bounce back. Maybe it won't rise as fast as we've seen but I do believe it's temporary!
-CC
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I predict the coins will exactly $432.66 /!coin by May -1
They they will drop slightly to $322 42
Then on Jun 12, they will suddenly drop to. $ 22.88
Frantic sellers begin clogging up the website and it goes down.
Then, he exchange websites start to get overloaded.
By this time the powers that be have managed to stall and buy enough time with hese tactics to allow the big players to get out safely first. Then the rest of are allowed to cash out.
Heheh watching the block chain can create a lot consitacy theories! You see that money moving and think , fuck why can't that transaction be mine ! Some big fucking players out there. They are not spending that on drugs when you tens of thousands in one transaction.
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HUGE CRASH. Seriously, is this normal or will it bounce back?
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HUGE CRASH. Seriously, is this normal or will it bounce back?
The bubble always bursts. But it will recover, just not to $230 right away.
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HUGE CRASH. Seriously, is this normal or will it bounce back?
The bubble always bursts. But it will recover, just not to $230 right away.
Spent some money an hour or so ago on some BTC, bad timing! I'll just hold on and see what happens I think.
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I predict the United States will declare war on Bitcoins, ??? as they have every other country that does not have a US controlled banking intrests(see Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, North Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, Etc... :( ) They will see the BC economy as a threat to the security of the financial economy, then the President will enact his authority to shut off the internet and everyone will lose everything. Or, there could be a fire sale. Theoretically. But, I'm sure we'll all be rich by then and none of us will care as long as we make other sound investments.(see-silver)
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I also predict that DPR will be in another Princess Bride movie. ;D Now Im off to get banned.
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Wow, all markets are going WILD right now. I believe this is due to;
A. Whoever sold 5,000BTC at $260USD today is at least partially responsible for setting off SELL limit orders and now we're seeing the results.
B. MTgox grew too fast and became too unstable with all the transactions and traffic it handles. This was made worse by the auto sell orders. Also the lag/delay in their bid/ask prices didn't help the situation one bit.
C. Panic and panic selling due to most people not truly understanding what Bitcoins are. They see their money disappearing and they sell to mitigate potential losses.
Add all three of these and you have a Wednesday like today! :)
I do NOT believe it will crash down to $5USD as many are claiming. I think it will go through a few more swings before it stabilizes again. I hope that at the very least Bitcoin equity is more evenly spread after today. Few investors with a LOT of coins is no good.
I will say that after today, confidence in MTgox will be at an all time low!
I predict that people will come home after work today, look at their Bitcoins and go, "WTF!? I'm getting out of this craziness!" MORE Price Swings Coming folks..
-CC
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I honestly preferred bitcoins when they were much cheaper. Makes doing mental math a lot easier when making purchases.
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Back on topic.... BTC will take a hit if a couple of big investors decide to cash in, then it's onward and upward... IMO , it'll blast through $500 in the next 60 days.
Once it goes way down it's just going to go back up because there are so many people who were late to the party and are waiting to buy in.
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Things you have to remember..
3.)There is a time When All the blocks will be mined forcing the price to level out (or skyrocket if everyone hoards)
3. Yes, but that time will be around 2050 I believe. When all blocks have been mined at that time, I believe a new crypto-currency will have replaced bitcoins
the year is actually around 2140
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Looks like the bubble has started to rupture. If it drops down to pennies, I hope to buy some.
I doubt it'll ever be pennys a coin again.
I'd buy some coinage if it dropped down to $80 again.
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$800a bitcoin by Dec 31 2013!
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Im going to ask for my paycheck to be paid in bitcoins and have them directly deposited to SR. TRACK THAT ASS HOLES!
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???
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did i win?
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Bitcoin.clarckmoody show us bitcoin value and it's crazy!
Even if it decrease a lot tonight, i'm sure it will rise again!
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wish i had something more useful to say, trying to hit my 50 mark :(
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more spam
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Rise again
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Once the Aussies wake up, they will turn on their computers and buy. 8)
-CC
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Things you have to remember..
3.)There is a time When All the blocks will be mined forcing the price to level out (or skyrocket if everyone hoards)
3. Yes, but that time will be around 2050 I believe. When all blocks have been mined at that time, I believe a new crypto-currency will have replaced bitcoins
the year is actually around 2140
By 2050 >95% of coins will be mined, effectively "all" when the block reward becomes <1 btc.
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fuck bitcoins
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fuck bitcoins
Why, did they fuck you? Sure as hell fucked me good. At least my sales were hedged but still... was hoping the value would stay up higher for a little longer! Good call on those who voted lol.
-CC
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I set aside a few thousand in bitcoins at $57 each and I'm going to ride it out for 5yrs before I think about selling them. It's a gamble but what isn't in life. Mama wants a new pair of shoes!
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I set aside a few thousand in bitcoins at $57 each and I'm going to ride it out for 5yrs before I think about selling them. It's a gamble but what isn't in life. Mama wants a new pair of shoes!
You bought them prior to the last two day's market correction? If you bought them early, and didn't set a sell order I think it might take a little time before you have that opportunity again.
-CC