Silk Road forums
Market => Rumor mill => Topic started by: Sc0t1and_Y4rdi3 on March 07, 2013, 01:19 am
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Buy products in the shop, this shit is sinking fast, floor is stationed at $19
Expect a lot of vendors to rogue at this point
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Dont know if I believe you or not, but I only have $8 in my account and plenty of Gear on its way.
It just happened to work out that way. If it crashes so be it. I would love to re-up at $5 per BTC, that would be sweet, Ill buy 100 of them, lol.
Good eye scot yard, keep this thread updated, I am interested to see what happens.
Also good point about the rogue venders, +1.
GT
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I wish! ;)
I'm actually afraid to re-up on coins because the value being so high there's a chance that I'll loose my ass instead of making money.
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I think there may be some merit to this.. look at the trade volume, its off the chart. The bubble may actually be busting.
http://blockchain.info/charts/trade-volume?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=
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My account decreased $20 in the last 4 hours idk if you would call that crashing. But it is most definitely going down
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It's back to 40 again... Stop panicking
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oh shit oh fuck oh shit oh fuck oh shit oh fuck
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I think a lot of people believe this is a bubble leading a lot of big players to move money, leading to a fall, leading to panic positive feedback loop... But I also think there is a lot of user growth, interest, and value recently in BTC. Basically, it's going to level out... my gamble is around $30-40... I don't think it will crash.
But honestly, the growth in the past couples days... even on a log scale... has been insane 0.o
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If BTC dropped to $5+/-, everyone would re-up. There would be about a 6 hour window to buy coin before it was back to $20+/-.
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just fell from $45 a btc to 36.52 in the last 3 minutes! just think, in late October it was $9.91 a btc!
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THEY TOOK OUR JEWBS
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fml i just bought a load today to sit on for a bit. it's not my money but fuck. there's me like "yeah it's a pretty safe bet the value will keep rising... it could crash, it's happened before but it bounces back and it's risen like crazy recently so you could have a load of extra drug money next week for doing nothing."
people should probably disregard my advice in general. if it does properly crash i'm going to look a right twat. so glad i'm not an investment banker or anything i feel really guilty already.
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No crash. For those thinking history is repeating, last 'crash' was a textbook bubble which burst when an exchange was compromised and the uneducated/misinformed lost confidence in bitcoin, dumping their coins accordingly. The current 'bubble' is more of a rise in genuine value with perhaps a slight bubble factor, and there is no cataclysmic event driving it down other than perhaps those cashing out from the mining game now ASICs are starting to emerge from the vaporware realm. A drop to around $30 would be as much as I'd fear, and anything beyond that at the moment is far too short-term a fluctuation to be considered a crash of any significance.
That said, if you want to cash out I'll hapily give anyone US$10:1BC for whatever they have left :-)
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http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/
Consider that before crying the sky is falling down.
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I agree, we should see a stable price around $30. Would be shocked if it crashed back to $8 but there is so much unpredictability with BTC.
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:) phew it's already risen back over what i paid so i can sleep now.
is it the mt. gox hack and leak you're referring to outback? i still get annoying scam spam because of that but it's nowhere near as entertaining as the elaborate nigerian emails. they tend to insist i must be a good law abiding practicing christian so i unfortunately don't qualify for their $935,928,000,000 money makers. shame.
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lol it will hit 100 this year... don't y'all keep up with the times?
coinlabs bought canada and USA mtgox.
it's going streamline and public stock exchange.
which makes it a tad more difficult for us vendors & anonymity.
IRS will get their fingers all over it now and coinlabs is Seattle based and the owner is a douche and doesnt give a fuck about us.
crazy times.
NWD
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I also agree with the above few posters +1 outback 8)
IMO the btc is still fairly new to many, but there is much more confidence with the people who have them, to be more likely to hold them, and so the price will stabilize
It has been said that the recent "increase in difficultly" of x 2 to mine a btc has somewhat compensated for the new ASICs :-\
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As long as people keep buying bitcoins the currency rate will be moving upwards, that's sort of a standard.
Last night drop may have been due to a lot of people cashing out their bitcoins at such a high price(highest within a year i think, if not the highest of all time)
and at the same time not so many purchases at this price
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i know this has been covered elsewhere but what is the relationship/lag time between the SR rates and mtgox rates? my account value fell is not indicative of the increase in BTC value over the last few hours.
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Lets hope it does, the harder and deeper the better! lots of moniez to be made if it does...
Its sick how much a few leftover coins on my account have increased in value, i'm seriously concidering buying in after the awaited correction.
If only i had the guts for it when i first learned about bitcoins, they were around 7$ then.
But i was new to it, and although i strongly suspected it would be a solid investment, i decided to play safe and observe it a while and try to learn more, do the smart thing i said, its better i said.
Just imagine having bought a 1000$ worth of Btc at 7$ and selling at 49$ last nite :o
They say money doesnt make happy, might be true? But you can do so many fun things with 7K, i'm pretty sure it wont make me unhappy either hehehe ;-)
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"I think today's correction was a simple healthy correction probably triggered by the mpex exchange. Mpex.co was under ddos attack all morning and partly as a joke they pointed DNS to whitehouse.gov. some on the message boards immediately concluded that mpex was seized by the us government and pulled the trigger to get away from bitcoin. prices had gone up so much prior to that that there was no supprt and it thus btc tanked fast. mpex never went down, and remained accessable via various proxies throughout. Mtgox however got bogged down and exacerbated the market uncertainty. It appears to be over at this with only a day or two worth of paper profit having been lost by people who held tight."
Crashing? Not just yet.
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there is no way it will ever crash slowly anymore. if it crashes - it will be worth nothing in a few minutes. as this will be a bitcoin hack. everything other than that and the bitcoin prices will keep raising. there might be some downs like now but they will be followed by the jojo effect. there is no logical way it will settle to whatever. there always be more people wanting money, not less. day by day. soon there will be more people wanting bitcoins than bitcoins will ever exist. the higher the value of the coin the higher the rate of miners will be - the more people get to know about bitcoins. people looking at the bitcoin price increase want to speculate and invest - more people want bitcoins.
tell me one logically explained reason why the bitcoin price should settle somehow. there is no way
^my opinion
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there is no way it will ever crash slowly anymore. if it crashes - it will be worth nothing in a few minutes. as this will be a bitcoin hack. everything other than that and the bitcoin prices will keep raising.
Any currency, virtual or otherwise, has a direct tie between its real-world value and its liquidity. A hack isn't the only way for value to drop sharply.
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so, tell me a few ways it could drop? heck tell me just one and ill happily debate it. look what happened last night. coin had a panicattack but was resolved in hours, now not even one day later it hardened the trust in it and the rates raising again. i still believe it will go up like there is no tomorrow.
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so, tell me a few ways it could drop? heck tell me just one and ill happily debate it. look what happened last night. coin had a panicattack but was resolved in hours, now not even one day later it hardened the trust in it and the rates raising again. i still believe it will go up like there is no tomorrow.
What if SilkRoad went down (legitimately) for a few weeks? There's no way of knowing how much of the Bitcoin market is used on SR, but I'm fairly sure it would affect the demand greatly at least. Hell, it seems to me that's what caused the value drop yesterday, and that was just for a few hours.
Granted, in time someone would take SR's place, but before then I think we would definitely see a drop in Bitcoin value. Which begs the question, we all know about banks being too big to fail due to the potential economic dangers, but if Bitcoin got big enough (Which it's on the path to doing) - would that then apply the same to our beloved drug market?
I'm just thinking out loud here, though, for the sake of conversation.
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So. . . . The bit coin price dropped recently due to SR forums being down for a few days?
Wow. We could cause a market price change by attacking the site's volnerabilties ?
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with asics out we will see an intial drop until difficulty rises to a point the small miners cannot sustain. after that the game will return to normal with most likely a higher then average price. you may lose value short term, but longterm you are fine.
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So. . . . The bit coin price dropped recently due to SR forums being down for a few days?
Wow. We could cause a market price change by attacking the site's volnerabilties ?
I wouldn't say it was the forums, more likely it was the SR market itself going down for the ~12 hours. It's purely speculative of course, but the results do seem to imply that was responsible for the drop in value - in that there was a drop yesterday, and the only difference in the BtC market was the lack of SR. Either way, I would think the forum's stability wouldn't affect it much either way, since it wouldn't affect purchasing abilities.
As for your second question... that's not something I'd feel comfortable discussing, cause the thought of someone doing that makes me sad.
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you guys have done too many drugs lol. SR being down didnt cause the btc to drop. btc always has random low volume periods. SR only accounts for the movement of 800-900 BTC a day. it being down for 12hrs effects 400 btcs in transactions. how many of those needed to be purchased. 50%? so at the end of the day SR being down took 200btcs out of the normal picture. Daily BTC volume varies from 1400 to 14000. those 200 did not cause a dip in the market.
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you guys have done too many drugs lol. SR being down didnt cause the btc to drop. btc always has random low volume periods. SR only accounts for the movement of 800-900 BTC a day. it being down for 12hrs effects 400 btcs in transactions. how many of those needed to be purchased. 50%? so at the end of the day SR being down took 200btcs out of the normal picture. Daily BTC volume varies from 1400 to 14000. those 200 did not cause a dip in the market.
Well, there's no real way to know for sure one way or another since there are so many variables involved and I for one don't have the time. However, using your estimation at a minimum of 200 BtC out of the market going through a minimum of 1400 BtC a day would be a 14.2% drop. Similarly, the BtC value (as close as I can tell anyway) went from $45 to $36 , showing a ~20% drop. Those are pretty close numbers (based off loose estimations in the first place), on the same exact timeline. It could be a coincidence, or not. Still interesting nonetheless.
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What if SilkRoad went down (legitimately) for a few weeks? There's no way of knowing how much of the Bitcoin market is used on SR, but I'm fairly sure it would affect the demand greatly at least. Hell, it seems to me that's what caused the value drop yesterday, and that was just for a few hours.
As Wraithe mentioned, I don't think the volume of btcs, traded on the SR is 'significant' or large enough to affect the market :-\
Hey btw Wraithe, how did you come up with those figures? I'm not saying they're incorrect or anything, just curious :D
It appears that the btc market is cleverly 'self regulating' and highly resiliant, when it comes to anyone trying to manipulate the market ... check out the wiki page on btcs to see 'why' this is the case.
Satoshi et al. REALLY knew what they were doing when they created bitcoins 8) .... Brilliant stuff, makes me proud to be a human again :o ;D 8)
BTW, Does anyone know 'how many' people/members the SR has? ??? Just curious is all :P
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oh u guys didnt hear what happened last night? they found a bug. a very dangerous one too! for some hours it was possible (tho very hard to accomplish) to spend all bitcoins u have twice! this was what caused the panic attack. i thought u all knew that. that bug came because of the database change from 0.7 to 0.8. 0.7 found its limit while increasing the blockchains in 0.8. unfortunately people with big mining machines didnt upgrade to 0.8 but kept using 0.7 but 0.7 cant handle so big chains (or something the like, i couldnt understand it fully-im no expert). every exchanger closed its doors for a few hours. it was an emergency. people thought the bitcoin will fall down to zero at this point. but the developers fixed that bug within hours. and the value went straight up again. this situation filled the world with confidence about the bitcoin. readup on it at bitcointalk. very interesting.
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What if SilkRoad went down (legitimately) for a few weeks? There's no way of knowing how much of the Bitcoin market is used on SR, but I'm fairly sure it would affect the demand greatly at least. Hell, it seems to me that's what caused the value drop yesterday, and that was just for a few hours.
As Wraithe mentioned, I don't think the volume of btcs, traded on the SR is 'significant' or large enough to affect the market :-\
Hey btw Wraithe, how did you come up with those figures? I'm not saying they're incorrect or anything, just curious :D
It appears that the btc market is cleverly 'self regulating' and highly resiliant, when it comes to anyone trying to manipulate the market ... check out the wiki page on btcs to see 'why' this is the case.
Satoshi et al. REALLY knew what they were doing when they created bitcoins 8) .... Brilliant stuff, makes me proud to be a human again :o ;D 8)
BTW, Does anyone know 'how many' people/members the SR has? ??? Just curious is all :P
my figures were off. it isnt 1400 btc a day its an hour. sorry had the wrong option selected and was drinking at the time I wrote this. So the impact is even smaller. my figures came from wikipedia LOL saying SR took in 1.2mil a month in revenue. 1200000/45btc = 26,666 btc a MONTH / 30 = 888 BTC a day of volume. then the rest was an educated guess of how much was purchased and was already in accounts. most of us use moneypaks and those sellers keep a nice chunk of BTC in wallets. They have to, to respond so quickly. Which led me to say only 1/2 would of been bought for the day, 12hours is half a day so 1/4 = 200btc
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oh u guys didnt hear what happened last night? they found a bug. a very dangerous one too! for some hours it was possible (tho very hard to accomplish) to spend all bitcoins u have twice! this was what caused the panic attack. i thought u all knew that. that bug came because of the database change from 0.7 to 0.8. 0.7 found its limit while increasing the blockchains in 0.8. unfortunately people with big mining machines didnt upgrade to 0.8 but kept using 0.7 but 0.7 cant handle so big chains (or something the like, i couldnt understand it fully-im no expert). every exchanger closed its doors for a few hours. it was an emergency. people thought the bitcoin will fall down to zero at this point. but the developers fixed that bug within hours. and the value went straight up again. this situation filled the world with confidence about the bitcoin. readup on it at bitcointalk. very interesting.
Verified by **clearnet** http://lagunabeachcomputer.com/bitcoin-trading-crashes-to-38-after-7-8-block-chain-fork-bug-announced/
**clearnet** http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1a4ab0/alert_payattention_a_block_was_mined_that_was_too/
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Buy products in the shop, this shit is sinking fast, floor is stationed at $19
Expect a lot of vendors to rogue at this point
You have "SCAMMER" in your profile. Why?
Also, Silkroad is a tiny part of Bitcoin. The bitcoin market is huge and more stable then ever. The larger it is, the more stable it will be. Unlike a couple of years ago if a big player sells a lot of bitcoin the market would affect everyone. It is not like that now. Big players are buying/selling all the time, just as they have been doing 2 years ago. You just don't realize it because the BTC value isn't affected as much. Posts like this just throw the new people off course, and if that was your intention you probably made a few of them nervous. Most important. NO ONE CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE. IF ANYONE CLAIMS OR HAS INFORMATION THAT THE BITCOIN MARKET IS CRASHING OR FALLING THEY ARE INDICATING THEY CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE. IF YOU BELIEVE THAT, THEN YOU SHOULD LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY ANYWAY. IF THEY CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE WHAT THE HELL ARE THEY DOING HERE? WHY NOT BUY A WINNING LOTTERY TICKET AND MAKE YOUR MILLIONS? THAT'S RIGHT, NO ONE CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE.
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my figures were off. it isnt 1400 btc a day its an hour. sorry had the wrong option selected and was drinking at the time I wrote this
LOL Wraithe! you should know better than to try and apologise for drunken posting! :o ;D But ....
Thanx for the cool reply, 'tis appreciated muchly 8)
As for my other question, does anyone know how many members there are on the SR site? (not the forums) and how long had the SR been going, like, when did it 'start?'
cheeeers all for the replies
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2011, and as for members i have not seen a number anywhere but ive heard a few million in revenue a month so base it off that
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there are 56,813 members on the forums so thats gives you a rough idea