Silk Road forums
Discussion => Silk Road discussion => Topic started by: dbz4u on January 22, 2013, 07:56 am
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I have developed my own method, some of you may have seen the posts about it before. It may deserve it's own thread if we can make it flawless. Here's the post from before:
I developed my own modified martingale strategy for using Satoshi Dice. When i win big, or get a couple wins in a row, i will bet low for a few bets, like .01 btc, or .02. I purposefully try to provoke a loss from the system, as it is gauranteed to give you one with the martingale strategy. These are adaptive algorithms, so if you managed to get a series of big wins with the martingale strategy, it will know that, allow you to think you're strategy is flawless. Then you start betting larger and larger amounts trying to double over and over with a larger and larger series of losses interspersed with spare wins. The whole goal of their system is to make you bet as much as possible in anger, because your strategy appeared to be working, and now it isn't. I experienced this first hand, as i had tested this with varying bet amounts at varying intervals between X number of bets. My strategy was honed and refined on the 50% win odd, with a 1.957 modifier.
These tests of mine were performed using a blockchain.info ewallet, and i am quite happy to share the password to the account for analysis of the results to gain furthur insight into gaming their system to trusted members of the community.
Also please keep in mind, with this strategy you need to set a baseline for you're win lose percentage.
Say i bet a set amount everytime. It would look something like this in my transaction history.
.03 Win
.03 win
.01 loss
.1 win
.03 loss
.03 loss
.5 win
That is a sample bet chain that i would experience. This strategy has some fluctuations, as do all others, however this one is gauranteed to make you money if you play it calmly, safely, and anxiety free. If you play this game as a business you can make money. I went from 4 bitcoins, up to 11 bitcoins at one point, before i got cocky and disregarded my own strategy and played regular martingale.
As i have stated before, i would be happy to share the empty blockchain.info ewallet login info with members i know, for transaction analysis.
Edit:also i forgot to mention the max bet amount is 250 btc flat. Potentially using my system at that odd you could almost double your money if you max that bet and win, equaling around 189.25 net profit in bitcoins in about 10 seconds if you win
Edit 2: This is actually just one of a few ewallets i performed these tests on over a few weeks. I tried moving around a bit testing if they burned a specific address, or if they somehow worked with blockchain.info to help recognize people gaming their system. This particular ewallet has around 125+ sample bets for you guys to analyze
My strategy goes on the basis that you will have a higher probability of winning after a series of successive losses on the 50% odd. This is known to some as the gamblers fallacy, however i believe that it works in the Satoshi Dice system(at least the way it is set up now). My e-wallet will serve as the evidence for this theory, and i also have a multibit wallet with quite a few bets as well.
Honestly i want to develop a method for profit using this system. I made a 7 btc profit at one point, before i got overly cocky(if you had made 7 btc in one day wouldn't you be cocky?) and just panic bet when the losses started rolling in, even though if i had followed my system and not tried to make a quick buck, i could have kept profiting.
This game will definitely raise you're anxiety level if you do not have the money to gamble. DO NOT SPEND YOUR COINS WITHOUT BEING PREPARED TO LOSE THEM!!!!!!!!! This strategy i have developed is a guideline not a rule. You actually need a decent sized starting pot, around 3-4 btc, because there are times when you will get hit with successive losses.
This does not mean the strategy is not working, merely that you should bet low until you have a significantly sized loss chain that you feel the next bet will be a winner. This system is guaranteed to give you a win at some point, it has too, otherwise no one would play. The way people lose money gambling is that they consistently chase the win. You have to have a goal in mind here, a set amount you want to work up too. I can't stress enough that the system does EVENTUALLY adapt. It can be 50 transactions, it can be 100.
However, their system can be played. I have the transaction history to prove it on blockchain, with the current balance stat's at the start of the bet, and whenever the bet was returned, win or lose.
MAJOR EDIT: I have decided to just publish the wallet, for all your viewing pleasure.
f62b9bd1-a226-e18f-ecca-07e67b6ad985
abc1234567
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Also i forgot to mention that my strategy includes an accelerating risk/reward structure.
What i mean by this is that after a loss chain of say 2 with a bet of .03 btc to set a baseline, you're next bet is .1. Now if this win's, you bet low again. If this loses, you bet even higher. I found that it was more likely to give a win/payout after a significant loss, than it was to after a small one, if carried out in the method described
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I keep seeing this posted around the forums but no one has made the obvious counter-points.
Satoshi Dice is random. The lucky number is a hash of your tx id and the site's daily secret (posted beforehand). There is no algorithm deciding to payout based on your betting behavior. This is verifiable.
A betting system like Martingale (or your modified Martingale) may redistribute the risks of small frequent losses vs large infrequent losses but it can't do anything to change the actual odds and expected value of the game.
That you see patterns in a 150-something sample size does not mean that these patterns are real. It's a gambler's apophenia. It means your sample size is too small.
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I keep seeing this posted around the forums but no one has made the obvious counter-points.
Satoshi Dice is random. The lucky number is a hash of your tx id and the site's daily secret (posted beforehand). There is no algorithm deciding to payout based on your betting behavior. This is verifiable.
A betting system like Martingale (or your modified Martingale) may redistribute the risks of small frequent losses vs large infrequent losses but it can't do anything to change the actual odds and expected value of the game.
That you see patterns in a 150-something sample size does not mean that these patterns are real. It's a gambler's apophenia. It means your sample size is too small.
Agreed it is a small sample size, however it is only one of the wallets i performed the tests on. I have a multibit wallet with around 250 bets(unfortunately not all to the same odd :(). However, you are correct, it cannot "change the odds". What it can do as you say is mitigate losses. Their system is built by a human, therefore there are errors in the algorithm. It isn't perfect as i made money continuously, if methodically done. This system can be manipulated, and i would love to provide you with the account history for you to look at :)
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I actually consistently worked my way upwards in value with my strategy, even if i suffered a big loss through sheer stupidity. If you have doubts to whether my strategy works, by all means either look through my results or test it yourself.
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Please lay out your detailed strategy in point form here, and post more history for us to look at. PM me if you prefer not to make public.
Sounds doubtful, but if there's something to it then I am all for the SR community getting wealthier :)
BG
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Please lay out your detailed strategy in point form here, and post more history for us to look at. PM me if you prefer not to make public.
Sounds doubtful, but if there's something to it then I am all for the SR community getting wealthier :)
BG
Pm'd you the blockchain.info wallet info. I have a few more accounts on blockchain with transaction history, plus a pretty big history in a multibit wallet
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BG, have you looked through the wallet info yet?
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I want to bump this thread for a couple of reasons
A. I passed out my login info to blockchain to a few members here, I want to know if you saw results. If you didn't please pm me you're blockchain info(empty the wallet first of course), and lemme pour over you're bets. I'd love to see if the errors occured while adhering to my guidelines on the strategy. Remember guys this strategy is actually based on using your LOSSES to your ADVANTAGE. The whole point is to get a string of losses after a string of wins, or a high value win., then bet high. The system is designed to give you a win every so often so you don't just flat out quit in 10 minutes. You really can't lose the 50% odd 6 times in a row on there. It's practically impossible(especially considering they aren't actually using a 50% betting odds algorithm, just something close too it. Even if it was truly a 50% odd, the chances of you losing that many times in a row sequentially is almost impossible, at least in reality(however this is a computer program, can be as random as it wants to be) It'd be like tossing a coin up in the air and having it land on tails 6-8 times in a row when you pick heads. It's a rare occurance even with completely random chance.
And even when i lost big(and i actually did a lot, not cause of the strategy but, my own cockiness and stupidity) I could always work my way back. I crashed to 3(my starting amount, even dipped down to 1 and made it all the way back up to 10 in ~ an hour, hour and 1/2 multiple times when i was perfecting this. You can yo-yo back up the foodchain if you do suffer losses.
B. I want to make Roaders wealthy(the one's i like anyway). When we've got some confirmations that it truly does work(It does, obviously though you should verify it for yourself.) If it does, I'm down to organize a bet raid on Satoshi, and just drain their wallets when we figure it out
C. The max bet is 250 btc. That means potentially(Never bet 250 btc at once when they're currently $26+. Seriously if you do i will laugh at you) you could make over $2500 in profit in literally 30 seconds-1 minute.(It works the same way the SR gaming commission does, they're model is based off of SD).
A WORD OF CAUTION: Do not attempt this strategy(really any gambling/betting) when you are very anxious or upset. This strategy DOES produce bet anxiety, because it relies on frequent small calculated bets. That 10-20 seconds waiting for confirmation on when you've won or lost can be SUPER FUCKING STRESSFUL. It's why i lost all my cash, once you hit a decent win amount you start thinking you own the damn thing and you can win no matter what. Trust me guys if the strategy i have laid out works, USE IT. Do not deviate to regular Martingale or you will be 100% fucked and out of money in 30 minutes.
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I'm sorry, but you've just totally discredited yourself. The odds of anything coming up as one of two possibilities 6 times in a row, when each possibility has a 50% chance, is much higher than you make it out to be. It's ~1.5% (0.5 to the 6th power). That means out of every 100 instances, it can be expected to happen 1.5 times. That's not practically impossible, IMHO.
Also, I don't understand what you mean by "this is a computer program, can be as random as it wants to be." There exists no algorithm (that I have ever seen, been told of, or can even imagine) that generates truly random numbers. They ALL are deterministic. If you happened to know which algorithm was being used and where in the sequence it was, you could predict every number with 100% accuracy forever, until the universe dies a cold lonely heat death.
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I'm sorry, but you've just totally discredited yourself. The odds of anything coming up as one of two possibilities 6 times in a row, when each possibility has a 50% chance, is much higher than you make it out to be. It's ~1.5% (0.5 to the 6th power). That means out of every 100 instances, it can be expected to happen 1.5 times. That's not practically impossible, IMHO.
Also, I don't understand what you mean by "this is a computer program, can be as random as it wants to be." There exists no algorithm (that I have ever seen, been told of, or can even imagine) that generates truly random numbers. They ALL are deterministic. If you happened to know which algorithm was being used and where in the sequence it was, you could predict every number with 100% accuracy forever, until the universe dies a cold lonely heat death.
Sorry i tend to have a lil trouble with absolutes.
And yes to your second point. That's exactly what i mean, they can't be truly random cause someone made these algorithms. You can find the actual algorithm if you're great at math(Not saying I am). To prove stuff like this can be cracked, do a search on the guy that cracked the scratcher lotto's in the early 2000's, just by noticing patterns.
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I'm sorry, but you've just totally discredited yourself. The odds of anything coming up as one of two possibilities 6 times in a row, when each possibility has a 50% chance, is much higher than you make it out to be. It's ~1.5% (0.5 to the 6th power). That means out of every 100 instances, it can be expected to happen 1.5 times. That's not practically impossible, IMHO.
You´re right. Played SD for some days until I lost my coins and I know for my self the 6 losses in a row is far away from impossible. If you play long enough, 6 losses in a row will appear!
I played martingale and lost my coins with 9 losses in a row. Seen over a long period you can`t win at SD, do your math.
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It's fine, everybody's wrong sometimes and you mean well :) I don't understand why you aren't just doing this yourself nonstop if you're so convinced it works? I mean is it too boring or something? That kind of thing is incredibly easy to automate; don't have to be a programmer to put together a long chain of `if' and `else' statements. It gets pretty dizzying if you write anything big like that (as in impossible to change, update, or even follow the execution pretty quickly), but I'm sure you could do it with a tutorial and a few hours.
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It's fine, everybody's wrong sometimes and you mean well :) I don't understand why you aren't just doing this yourself nonstop if you're so convinced it works? I mean is it too boring or something? That kind of thing is incredibly easy to automate; don't have to be a programmer to put together a long chain of `if' and `else' statements. It gets pretty dizzying if you write anything big like that (as in impossible to change, update, or even follow the execution pretty quickly), but I'm sure you could do it with a tutorial and a few hours.
Truth is I am a broke ass motherfucker. No job currently, otherwise i would be destroying their btc stock right now.Also like i mentioned, It really is anxiety producing, and i already have an anxiety problem. The tenseness you get when you bet 10$ and lose, then you bet again and lose, just to make double back on the third will stress you. Like i said that 10-30 second wait for those confirmations is sitting on the edge of your seat. It really is a game, you can really get into it. The whole point is knowing when to get out, I'm pretty sure their system will wipe you after a bigger win ratio, but i didn't have anywhere near a large enough dataset to say conclusively.
And yea it is a teensy bit boring changing the bet value's and pressing send. But free money that you can make in 10-30 seconds isn't bad at all.
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You cannot predict anything because of the butterfly effect. You can try to devise a tactic or strategy, but it will ultimately fail. The way to beat Satoshi dice is to stop playing.
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if any of you gamble in real life( i do) i have found the best way to make money on SR its quite easy, to not get saturated PM me if u wana know how to make that mad Mula by gambling
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You cannot predict anything because of the butterfly effect. You can try to devise a tactic or strategy, but it will ultimately fail. The way to beat Satoshi dice is to stop playing.
Why don't you try it and then tell me. Trust me man, i did this and really did make money, i just got cocky and panicky and just reactionary bet when i lost with higher and higher amounts instead of getting the loss chains then betting high
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You cannot predict anything because of the butterfly effect. You can try to devise a tactic or strategy, but it will ultimately fail. The way to beat Satoshi dice is to stop playing.
Why don't you try it and then tell me. Trust me man, i did this and really did make money, i just got cocky and panicky and just reactionary bet when i lost with higher and higher amounts instead of getting the loss chains then betting high
Sorry to say, but it was by random. As mentioned before, the tactic you're talking about is gambling apophenia. (Clearnet warning: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia)
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if you look on the leaderboards people are loosing millions of $!!!! I cannot understand it!!!! MAD
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You cannot predict anything because of the butterfly effect. You can try to devise a tactic or strategy, but it will ultimately fail. The way to beat Satoshi dice is to stop playing.
Why don't you try it and then tell me. Trust me man, i did this and really did make money, i just got cocky and panicky and just reactionary bet when i lost with higher and higher amounts instead of getting the loss chains then betting high
Sorry to say, but it was by random. As mentioned before, the tactic you're talking about is gambling apophenia. (Clearnet warning: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia)
If you don't mind can i see the empty blockchain wallet to see if you did my strategy right?
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There is NO surefire strategy to "beat" Satoshi Dice. It is random for each bet, and that is that. Any martingale or variation of a martingale strategy can *at best* prolong how long you are able to play.
This has been completely hammered to death in the clearnet. The ability to utilize a martingale strategy for profit is limited to the amount of BTC you start with and the "baseline" bet amount. Essentially, no matter what you start with, you might be able to win, but if you play long enough, the odds say you will lose it all. Random means that it's possible for 50 consecutive successive losing bets. It's possible for 5000 consecutive losing bets. If you bet long enough, it will happen. And unless you start with enough BTC to keep betting after that many losses, you will be out.
Again, ANY MARTINGALE-BASED STRATEGY IS LIMITED BY THE STARTING AMOUNT OF BTC--THE AMOUNT OF BTC YOU ARE WILLING TO LOSE.
That being said, I have won big using such a strategy. I will occasionally use it to go up .5 BTC and then quit. More often than not, I am able to do this. I play a couple times a week and I'd say 9 weeks out of 10, I get about a BTC a week. BUT I have also had it happen where I started with 30BTC and bets of .05 and lost everything using the martingale. It's random! You will eventually hit a streak that will nullify any winnings you got before.
DON'T BET MORE THAN YOU ARE PREPARED TO LOSE, EVER!
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There is NO surefire strategy to "beat" Satoshi Dice. It is random for each bet, and that is that. Any martingale or variation of a martingale strategy can *at best* prolong how long you are able to play.
This has been completely hammered to death in the clearnet. The ability to utilize a martingale strategy for profit is limited to the amount of BTC you start with and the "baseline" bet amount. Essentially, no matter what you start with, you might be able to win, but if you play long enough, the odds say you will lose it all. Random means that it's possible for 50 consecutive successive losing bets. It's possible for 5000 consecutive losing bets. If you bet long enough, it will happen. And unless you start with enough BTC to keep betting after that many losses, you will be out.
Again, ANY MARTINGALE-BASED STRATEGY IS LIMITED BY THE STARTING AMOUNT OF BTC--THE AMOUNT OF BTC YOU ARE WILLING TO LOSE.
That being said, I have won big using such a strategy. I will occasionally use it to go up .5 BTC and then quit. More often than not, I am able to do this. I play a couple times a week and I'd say 9 weeks out of 10, I get about a BTC a week. BUT I have also had it happen where I started with 30BTC and bets of .05 and lost everything using the martingale. It's random! You will eventually hit a streak that will nullify any winnings you got before.
DON'T BET MORE THAN YOU ARE PREPARED TO LOSE, EVER!
Now you see, I was and still am so confident in my strategy that when i was perfecting it i would bet a whole btc or more sometimes, and it would win predicably win when adhering to my loss chain strategy. And like you said yes, you are correct, if you play long enough you will lose because the system adapts. Even after doing this successfully multiple times from the same btc address, the computer shut me down with a series of losses like 8 in a row, but this was after 3 days in a row with me perfecting the strategy and sitting there betting for multiple hours at a time(remember i was just trying to perfect the strategy). If you would like to see proof of my results, I'm just gonna publish the wallet. Enough bullshitting around the PM.
f62b9bd1-a226-e18f-ecca-07e67b6ad985
abc1234567
Switch to the view that is able to show you the balance that i had after that transaction. Remember there will always be a transaction immediately after the sent, what you receive tells you if you've won or lost. If you get more than you sent, you've won, if it gives you .001 btc, that is a loss. All bets using this strategy were placed to the supposed "50%" win chance odd, which is this btc address for reference when looking at the wallet:
1dice97ECuByXAvqXpaYzSaQuPVvrtmz6
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Any take on the martingale strategy is ultimately doomed to fail, question is do you know when to walk away ? personally id just put all the bitcoins you are prepared to lose on one bet and if it wins, walk away, if it loses then accept the loss. Save yourself a hell a lot of time.
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Any take on the martingale strategy is ultimately doomed to fail, question is do you know when to walk away ? personally id just put all the bitcoins you are prepared to lose on one bet and if it wins, walk away, if it loses then accept the loss. Save yourself a hell a lot of time.
The whole point of the strategy is not only to mitigate losses but allow you to double to triple you're money. I've done it with a sequence of small bets, then moved on to larger ones. Like i said this strategy is 100% dependant on establishing a baseline(a series of wins and succesive losses, using small amounts like .03, .1/.2 for the bigger amounts of an expected win to mitigate any harm to your amount you have. Yes you may drop a btc or two before this works flawlessly, but it does. You can see on my wallet, i started with around 3-4 btc and consistently got back up to 10 after i had done something really stupid and crashed down to my starting amount or lower.
But of course having a goal in mind and then getting out when you reach that goal is the best idea. The biggest amount i would try in a few weeks time is a doubling or tripling of your money. This strategy is quite effective, if extremely methodical.
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dbz4u, you are assuming that if you have a long streak of losses, it will increase the odds of the next bet being a win. IT IS A DELUSION.
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the only way to win is to be the house, spend whatever BTC you are throwing at SD toward some SD shares.
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Any take on the martingale strategy is ultimately doomed to fail, question is do you know when to walk away ? personally id just put all the bitcoins you are prepared to lose on one bet and if it wins, walk away, if it loses then accept the loss. Save yourself a hell a lot of time.
Amusingly enough, this is the BEST strategy if your goal is to win big at a casino. The odds favor the house, we all know that, right? Right. Let's totally ignore the payout if you win or lose. Let's just say that it's always constant. Then a single huge bet truly is the best bet. It's still a stupid bet, but it's the least stupid one if you're really trying to win and not have fun.
Think about it -- every time you allow the house a chance to win, it's going to win more of your money (statistically speaking). Every time you don't win big, you lose a chunk of your starting money, and we agree that the house will eventually win if you keep playing. Play forever, and you're leaving with $0.00 dollars. Period. There is no way around this. The question then becomes when do you stop playing?
Well, obviously that's the problem, now isn't it. The thing is that it's best to stop playing before you play a single hand. Now statistically, over time, if you start with $10.00 and the house has a 55% chance of winning, after one hand you'll on *average* have less than you started with. Every time you play a hand, you will -- in the sense of statistical averages at least -- have less money.
Therefore never starting is the best bet. Stopping after one is the next best bet.
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Any take on the martingale strategy is ultimately doomed to fail, question is do you know when to walk away ? personally id just put all the bitcoins you are prepared to lose on one bet and if it wins, walk away, if it loses then accept the loss. Save yourself a hell a lot of time.
Amusingly enough, this is the BEST strategy if your goal is to win big at a casino. The odds favor the house, we all know that, right? Right. Let's totally ignore the payout if you win or lose. Let's just say that it's always constant. Then a single huge bet truly is the best bet. It's still a stupid bet, but it's the least stupid one if you're really trying to win and not have fun.
Think about it -- every time you allow the house a chance to win, it's going to win more of your money (statistically speaking). Every time you don't win big, you lose a chunk of your starting money, and we agree that the house will eventually win if you keep playing. Play forever, and you're leaving with $0.00 dollars. Period. There is no way around this. The question then becomes when do you stop playing?
Well, obviously that's the problem, now isn't it. The thing is that it's best to stop playing before you play a single hand. Now statistically, over time, if you start with $10.00 and the house has a 55% chance of winning, after one hand you'll on *average* have less than you started with. Every time you play a hand, you will -- in the sense of statistical averages at least -- have less money.
Therefore never starting is the best bet. Stopping after one is the next best bet.
I typed out a response exactly along those lines but it wouldn't post. The gamblers fallacy applies only to TRULY random scenarios. This is a man-made algorithm, if anything it's easier to game than a real life scenario, because it's just math and patterns, AND all the data is saved right in front of you so you can work on it.
The modified martingale i have come up with leverages the houses built in advantage against it. Since you know it will win more times than it will lose, you make yourself lose, and then pounce when you can smell a win coming from the system. That's why this isn't reactive, it's calculated
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I'm sorry but there is no way to beat the game at all. I used to manage a bookmakers and there were tons of people claiming they could beat the FOBT's because they 'knew the programming' but they never would win. It's the same as using the martingale on a roulette wheel's black/red. You may win a bit for a short time but it isn't sustainable in the long run and that's the most important part of gambling successfully, the long run. Learn horse form and lay bets on Betfair if you want to supplement your income, there's a reason bookies are raking it in. Trading works as well but unless your rocking £10,000 to go, it's not worth your time. You can start your own 'bookmakers' on the exchanges for £250 and with just one lay a day you can make £332.50 a week. It' not hard to choose one losing horse a day.
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Thought I'd throw this up...
"To determine if a wager is a winner or loser, the site uses a method to produce a number between 0 and 65,535, similar to how a random number generator (RNG) would be used. The service uses a combination of the transaction hash from the wager transaction from the blockchain and performs a 512-bit SHA2 hash for that transaction hash using a secret unknown to the player. The first four bytes of that hash become the lucky number in determining winner or loser."
Modified how you may martingale should always fail eventually.. I'm fairly certain that RNG's are just as "random" as roulette tables, entropy and all that. I could be wrong though, I'm no mathematician ???