Silk Road forums
Discussion => Silk Road discussion => Topic started by: SR Gaming Commission on December 29, 2012, 04:11 am
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char freq
0 7
1 5
2 7
3 8
4 5
5 8
6 11
7 7
8 5
9 5
a 7
b 5
c 6
d 5
e 4
f 4
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What are we witnessing here?
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What are we witnessing here?
Distribution of hexadecimal characters in 100 transaction ID hashes.
The important part is that the 7 occurred 7 of 100 times, or 7%, which is slightly higher than the game promise of 1/16 or 6.25%.
That would explain why they are at a slight loss right now.
The non-uniform range between 4 and 11 is interesting and suggests truly random results. If everything was between 6 and 8 I'd be a lot more suspicious.
Edit: or 99 times, close enough. :)
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i won my first / last attempt ...talk about luck, but they did pay within 5 minutes of me winning ;D
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The Lotto game (wins when final digit is 7) is paying out somewhat more than expected, but not too much.
What really killed us was the triple sevens game. Of those 99 tx ids, we had 3 occurrences of triple 7s. Two is predicted (2.2% chance of triple sevens). Unfortunately two of those occurrences were in the super slots game (where triple sevens pays 10B) and only 20 tickets had sold. That's a loss five times what "should" be the case. Like you mention astor, randomness is... random. We have enough bankroll to get through the occasional high net loss. Too many night like this or worse though and were going out of business.
Just goes to show you variances can do real damage with high payoffs. We're probably going to hold off on 100BTC and higher payoffs until we get a good handle on this.