There was a long thread that pine started, where she collected data from many vendors on their shipping success rates. The overall success rate was 96.5%, so 3.5% of packages are seized, but that doesn't tell the whole story, because it mixes international and domestic stats, along with stats from different countries. We know Australia has a high interception rate, for example, and we know that international orders are seized much more often than domestic. For personal amounts like that, the chances of a seizure are less than 1% domestic.