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Messages - astor

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1666
Silk Road discussion / Re: Is it too late to invest BTC?
« on: April 10, 2013, 08:22 pm »
Here's another theory about this sell off that I came across:

An insider email was leaked onto r/bitcoin a couple weeks ago. Basically a group of rogue traders on Tor organizes a planned DDOS of MtGox at a specific date and time - thus locking out everyone from creating new trades - while simultaneously creating a sell off over 4 hours. The fact that no new trades can be created combined with the price dropping precipitously causes a panic, which grows. At the height of the panic, they buy back in (because they are the ones controlling the DDOS, so they get to make the profitable trades). Everyone else loses their ass who reads the price manipulation as true market price and panics. More people need to understand this because no one is actually panicking at first; it's price manipulation through the DDOS dropping the price, not actual mass sell off. Still people just blindly look at the price of MtGox and don't consider this as a possibility even though it's happened frequently over the last few months. Information is power.

1667
Silk Road discussion / Re: Is it too late to invest BTC?
« on: April 10, 2013, 08:07 pm »
The bitcoin price is currently in a state of quantum decoherence, because the bid-ask spread is $50. It's either $120 or $170 and keeps jumping back and forth.

1668
Security / Re: What is happening with bitcoin
« on: April 10, 2013, 07:54 pm »
Panic! Fire and brimstone coming down from the sky! Rivers and seas boiling!  Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes!  The dead rising from the grave!  Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats, living together! Mass hysteria!

1669
Silk Road discussion / Re: Is it too late to invest BTC?
« on: April 10, 2013, 07:51 pm »
Around now is the perfect time to buy  up cheap coins.

Sometimes we have to take a step back and consider how far we've come. It's amazing that $120 coins are considered cheap. :)

1670
Silk Road discussion / Re: escrowed fund are not safe
« on: April 10, 2013, 07:44 pm »
Pretty much every exchange is suffering massive lag right now, but MtGox is getting hit the worst. If SR gets its 24 hour average from the MtGox API, that would explain why it hasn't be updated in a while.

1671
LOL, like right now? :)

1672
Silk Road discussion / Re: Is it too late to invest BTC?
« on: April 10, 2013, 07:02 pm »
The blockchain website? does it go down a lot, because I'm waiting for a transfer for some time now...

Not the web site. The actual block chain, after which blockchain.info is named.

1673
Silk Road discussion / Re: Is it too late to invest BTC?
« on: April 10, 2013, 06:52 pm »
any insight  from someone who knows why, not just guessing as to why we would have a 100 dollar drop in the matter of an hour?

One explanation that I've heard is that people run bots which query the MtGox API. The bots are programmed to sell if the lag gets too long, because without information on the current price, that's considered the safe thing to do. So when MtGox gets a huge lag because of high trade volume, or in this case because of a DDOS attack, that triggers the bots to sell. Of course, that doesn't explain all of it, but when people see the price dropping, then they panic and sell too.

Supposedly that's what happened during one of the other sell offs back in March. Not the one that went from $48 to $33, that was caused by the block chain hard fork. There was one before that which was also triggered by MtGox lag.

1674
Silk Road discussion / Re: Is it too late to invest BTC?
« on: April 10, 2013, 06:36 pm »
It went from $266 to $156. Hell of a sell off, even in relative terms.

The market is fucking whacked right now. $36 bid-ask spread, usually it's less than a dollar. Price is jumping all around. This will take a while to get settled.

1675
Silk Road discussion / Re: Is it too late to invest BTC?
« on: April 10, 2013, 05:30 pm »
There's a huge buy wall at $200.  3000 BTC worth of buy orders, so if you want coins, you should put in an order at $201. :)

1676
Silk Road discussion / Re: Is it too late to invest BTC?
« on: April 10, 2013, 05:20 pm »
Looks like it's time for our weekly panic / sell off. The price just dropped $50, although that's 20% of the peak value, so by relative magnitude it's not the biggest drop we've experienced. Then again, it may not be over yet. Is this an excellent time to buy? So hard to tell.

1677
Security / Re: Why is BTC's value increasing so drastically?
« on: April 10, 2013, 02:40 am »
FTR Eric Vorhees isn't a bitcoin developer but he is the owner of SatoshiDice.  He didn't actually develop SatoshiDice but bought it from another Reddit user.

SatoshiDice has made 72947.99 btc in profit since it opened in mid-2012.

I stand corrected.

Didn't he also kill a bunch of people in the 80s?

1678
I think it would make sense to start accepting LTC on SR. Each vendor could get the option to accept them or not. But it would take some of the heat of off BTC and kick-start the sales again on SR.

That's actually an interesting idea. They could offer an in-house BTC-LTC exchange and vendors could opt to sell only in LTC. After a big burst a week ago, its price has been relatively stable in the last week. Then again, that may be a temporary thing. Since it's a smaller market, it may go through much bigger fluctuations eventually.

1679
Security / Re: setting up a usb stick
« on: April 10, 2013, 01:34 am »
Yeah, because they updated to 0.17.2 today. FFS it's the big green download button on the site.


http://dl.amnesia.boum.org/tails/stable/tails-i386-0.17.2/tails-i386-0.17.2.iso


1680
Security / Re: BTC speculation hyper bubble
« on: April 09, 2013, 10:59 pm »
Price of BTC seems to be levelling off no?

Trading volume has decreased. Most people are done for the day.  Go here:

http://bitcoinity.org/markets

Click the "24h" link in the top left the top graph. See the purple bars? That's trading volume. See how high it was when the price was increasing. We're at maybe 1/5 of the volume now.

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